Bucks vs. Pacers Prediction, Odds, Pick: NBA Playoffs, Game 6

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MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - OCTOBER 29: Damian Lillard #0 talks with Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks during the game against the Atlanta Hawks at Fiserv Forum on October 29, 2023 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
(Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 01, 2024, 1:55 PM
  • The Pacers are -8.5 against the Bucks in Game 6.
  • Indiana is now 7-3 SU against the Bucks this season.
  • Why bettors should look at this Pacers team total for Thursday’s contest.

It looked as if Indiana was going to close out the series in five games, but the Bucks staved off defeat in Game 5. 

Down eight after the first quarter, Milwaukee won the remaining three quarters to capture a 23-point home win sans Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard. 

Still, the Bucks are heavy underdogs to reach the second round. Down 3-2 in the series, they’re now +575 to win the series. 

Here’s a look at the NBA playoff odds and my Game 6 prediction. 

NBA Playoff Odds – Bucks vs. Pacers

  • Pacers Moneyline: -350
  • Bucks Moneyline: +260
  • Spread: Pacers -8.5 (-105) 
  • Over/Under: 215.5 Points 
  • Series Price: Pacers (-900), Bucks (+575)

NBA Playoff Prediction – Bucks vs. Pacers

Indiana Pacers 1Q Team Total Over 28.5 Points (-125)

Save for a total dud in Game 1, the Pacers have shown they can boss the Bucks early. 

Even if you include a 21-point effort in Game 1’s opening frame, bettors will still find this Pacers team is averaging 30.8 points per first quarter. 

Additionally, they’ve cleared this number in four straight games. Shrink the sample down to their two home games, and bettors will find they’ve scored 39 and 33 points in the first quarter. 

That dominance in the first quarter extends to their regular season series against the Bucks. 

Although they only cleared this number in three of five games – one failure came at a neutral site – they averaged 31.2 points per quarter. 

In two regular season home games against Milwaukee, Indiana cleared this number on both occasions while averaging 35.5 points per first quarter. 

That means that, in four home games against Milwaukee, the Pacers are 4-0 against the number while averaging close to 36 first quarter points. 

In even better news for Indiana backers – the Bucks defense has started terribly away from home. 

Sample all Bucks road games this season, and bettors will find they’re allowed 30.6 first quarter points per game, good for fourth-worst in the NBA.

Given Indiana managed 31 first quarter points in Game 5, I’ll be quite surprised if they stay under this number at home.

NBA ATS Records 2023-24

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.
Mavericks48-34-0.585
Pacers44-36-3.550
Celtics41-36-5.533
Timberwolves40-40-2.500

NBA Over/Under Records 2023-24

TeamOver RecordOver Pct.Under Pct.
Celtics43-39-0.524.476
Pacers42-39-2.519.482
Timberwolves41-40-1.506.494
Mavericks36-45-1.444.556

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.