Bucks vs. Pacers Prediction, Odds, Pick: NBA Playoffs, Game 5

With the Bucks playing a majority of their road games without Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, they suffered two straight defeats. 

Down 3-1 in the series—and potentially without their two leading scorers on Tuesday—Milwaukee will attempt to begin its comeback. 

Oddsmakers believe they’re unlikely to flip the script. The Pacers are -1600 to win the series with the Bucks sitting at +850 on the other side. 

Here’s a look at the NBA playoff odds and my Game 5 prediction. 

NBA Playoff Odds – Bucks vs. Pacers

• Pacers Moneyline: -165
• Bucks Moneyline: +135
• Spread: Pacers -3.5
• Over/Under: 216.5 Points 
• Series Price: Pacers (-1600), Bucks (+850)

NBA Playoff Prediction – Bucks vs. Pacers

Indiana Pacers Team Total Over 109.5 Points (-120)

A small part of me thinks this is a trap, but the past performances are too difficult to ignore. 

In nine games this season against the Bucks, Indiana has failed to clear this number only one time. 

Through four games this series, Indiana is 3-1 to the over against this number. 

It’s also not as if they’re clearing 109.5 by the slimmest of margins. 

Even if you include their 94-point performance in Game 1, the Pacers are still averaging 122.2 non-overtime points per game against the Bucks. 

In those nine contests, they’ve notched at least 120 regulation points seven times. 

The Bucks could return Antetokounmpo and Lillard to the lineup, but does that really help their defense? 

During the regular season, Milwaukee ranked 18th in adjusted defensive rating, per dunksandthrees.com. 

Conversely, the Pacers sat second in the corresponding offensive category during the regular season and are second in offensive rating during the postseason. 

Plus, the Pacers own a unique statistical edge over the Bucks. 

Indiana attempted the third-most shots from around the rim and converted at the seventh-best rate during the regular season. 

Although the Bucks saw opponents attempt only 30% of their shots from around the rim, they ranked 19th in opponent shooting percentage. 

For those reasons, take Indiana’s offense to continue exploiting a weak Bucks interior as they attempt to close out the series.

NBA ATS Records 2023-24

NBA Over/Under Records 2023-24