Cavaliers vs. Magic Prediction, Odds, Pick: NBA Playoffs, Game 5

It’s the four-five matchup in the Eastern Conference first round, and I’m here to provide a Cavaliers vs. Magic prediction. 

Orlando held serve at home and heads back to Cleveland with the series tied 2-2. They won by 38 points in Game 3 and followed it up with a 23-point win in Game 4. 

Following those results, the Cavaliers have returned to their series opening price of -190 with the Magic sitting at +155 on the other side. 

Here’s a look at the NBA playoff odds and my Game 5 prediction. 

NBA Playoff Odds – Cavaliers vs. Magic

• Cavaliers Moneyline: -190
• Magic Moneyline: +155
• Spread: Cavaliers -4.5 (-110)
• Over/Under: 200.5 Points
• Series Price: Cavaliers (-190), Magic (+155)

NBA Playoff Prediction – Cavaliers vs. Magic

Cavaliers First Half Spread (-2.5, -115)

History says to buy teams in the first half when they’re on a multi-game losing streak. 

Since the 2004-05 season, home teams playing a conference game that lost between two and five straight are 212-148-7 (58.9%) ATS in the playoffs. 

Just this season, those teams are 7-3 ATS, including 4-2 ATS when they lost by 10 or more points in the previous game. 

Even if you ignore those historical trends, it’s worth noting the Cavaliers have done well at home this season. 

Irrespective of whether they closed a favorite or an underdog, Cleveland is 22-21 ATS in home first halves, including 2-0 ATS in the postseason. 

Conversely, the Magic are a lackluster 19-24 ATS in the first half away from home. 

Also worth noting – the Magic have largely struggled in the first half this series. 

They’ve only covered one first half spread (Game 3) and face a Cleveland defense that’s markedly better at home defensively. 

In home first halves this season, Cleveland is allowing only 53.7 points per game, the fourth-best mark in the NBA. 

Away from home, the average rises to 56.3 points per game, good for eighth-best in the league. 

But the bigger element of this handicap is that Orlando’s defense takes a massive dip on the road. 

The Magic are second-best in the NBA in terms of home points allowed in the first half. However, at 56.5 road points per game in the first half, they drop to 10th. 

Given that gap in defensive production, I’ll place my trust in the Cavs to bounce back at home as they seek a 3-2 series lead.

NBA ATS Records 2023-24

NBA Over/Under Records 2023-24