Celtics vs. Heat Prediction, Odds, Pick: NBA Playoffs, Game 5

min read
Jayson Tatum #0 of the Boston Celtics and Jaylen Brown #7 of the Boston Celtics react during the second quarter of the game.
(Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 30, 2024, 1:49 PM
  • The Celtics are -13.5 against the Heat.
  • Following a Game 2 loss, Boston claimed two wins in Miami by double digits.
  • Why bettors should expect a strong start from the Celtics offense.

With a chance to close out the Heat and advance to the second round, the Celtics are big home favorites for Wednesday’s Game 5. 

After a 10-point defeat at home in Game 2, Boston traveled to Miami and dominated both games. They won Game 3 by 20 points and captured Game 4 by 14 points. 

Following those results, Miami went from +1000 in the series winner price following Game 2 to +9000. 

Here’s a look at the NBA playoff odds and my Game 5 prediction. 

NBA Playoff Odds – Celtics vs. Heat

  • Celtics Moneyline: -1000
  • Heat Moneyline: +650
  • Spread: Celtics -13.5 
  • Over/Under: 199.5 Points (-110/-110)
  • Series Price: Celtics (-10000), Heat (+9000)

NBA Playoff Prediction – Celtics vs. Heat

Celtics 1H Team Total Over 55.5 Points (-110) 

This season against the Heat, the Celtics have gotten off to hot starts before cooling down in the second half. 

In three regular-season games against the Heat, Boston cleared this number all three times and reached 60 points in two of those three contests. 

That trend has continued into the postseason. 

Through four series games against the Heat, Boston has cleared this number three times and has notched 60 or more points in all three successes. 

The lone failure came in Game 4 on the road, where Boston generally averages fewer points in the first half. 

This season, the Celtics are averaging 63.1 first half points per game at home compared to 62.3 on the road. 

Miami’s defense also takes a dip in opponent production when they’re on the road. 

At home, the Heat defense surrenders 53.8 points per game in the first half compared to 54.8 on the road. 

However, that record doesn’t take into account strength of schedule. When Miami faces a top Eastern Conference team on the road in terms of first half production, they struggle. 

There are four Eastern Conference sides 10th or better in home first half points per game – Atlanta, Boston, Indiana and Milwaukee. 

Miami has played eight road games against those sides and has allowed 57.1 first half points across all games. 

Given Boston is a perfect 3-0 against this number at home against Miami, back them to start strong as they seek to close out the series.

NBA ATS Records 2023-24

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.
Mavericks48-34-0.585
Pacers44-36-3.550
Celtics41-36-5.533
Timberwolves40-40-2.500

NBA Over/Under Records 2023-24

TeamOver RecordOver Pct.Under Pct.
Celtics43-39-0.524.476
Pacers42-39-2.519.482
Timberwolves41-40-1.506.494
Mavericks36-45-1.444.556

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.