Nuggets vs. Lakers Prediction, Odds, Pick: NBA Playoffs, Game 5

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Shane Jackson @Sjacksonmgm May 02, 2024, 9:06 PM
  • The Nuggets will host the Lakers in Monday’s Game 5.
  • Denver is a 7.5-point favorite in the elimination game.
  • Lakers point guard D'Angelo Russell has a points prop of 15.5.

The 12th time was the charm.

The Los Angeles Lakers finally snapped an 11-game losing skid to the Denver Nuggets with Saturday’s 119-108 victory, avoiding a sweep for the second consecutive postseason.

But with the series headed back to Denver for Game 5, the Nuggets are in an excellent position to finish off a series victory. They are 7.5-point favorites on Monday.

Here’s a look at the NBA playoff odds and my Game 5 prediction:

NBA Playoff Odds – Nuggets vs. Lakers

  • Nuggets moneyline: -275
  • Lakers moneyline: +230
  • Spread: Nuggets -7.5
  • Over/Under: 216.5
  • Series price: Nuggets (-1000), Lakers (+1800)

Nuggets vs. Lakers – NBA Playoffs, Game 5

Prediction: D’Angelo Russell over 15.5 points (-105)

Lakers point guard D’Angelo Russell bounced back from a scoreless effort in Game 3 to record 21 points on 8-of-15 shooting in Saturday’s win. He went 4-for-8 from long range in Game 4.

That’s why over 2.5 3-pointers for Russell is the second-most bet prop on Monday, trailing only LeBron James to score more than 26.5 points. I can see the logic of needing three triples from Russell, but I’d rather take his discounted points prop.

Russell averages 14.3 points per game this series, clearing this mark in two of four outings. But the shot volume has been there for a player who averaged 18 points per contest in the regular season.

The only chance Los Angeles has at an upset win is Russell getting hot like he did in Game 2. With Jamal Murray dealing with a calf injury, the Lakers’ coaching staff might even encourage Russell to attack him more off the bounce.

With a projection of 17.3 points, there is a 13% edge on this current over. It’s worth playing at -120 or better.

NBA ATS Records 2023-24

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.
Mavericks48-34-0.585
Pacers44-36-3.550
Celtics41-36-5.533
Timberwolves40-40-2.500

NBA Over/Under Records 2023-24

TeamOver RecordOver Pct.Under Pct.
Celtics43-39-0.524.476
Pacers42-39-2.519.482
Timberwolves41-40-1.506.494
Mavericks36-45-1.444.556

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About the Author

Shane Jackson

Read More @Sjacksonmgm

Shane Jackson is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM, covering MLB and NBA. After graduating from the University of Kansas, his previous stops include MLB.com, Lawrence Journal-World, Manhattan Mercury, Bet Chicago Sports, WynnBET, and Sportsbook Review.

Shane Jackson is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM, covering MLB and NBA. After graduating from the University of Kansas, his previous stops include MLB.com, Lawrence Journal-World, Manhattan Mercury, Bet Chicago Sports, WynnBET, and Sportsbook Review.