- The Nuggets (39-18) are -1.5 favorites vs. the Heat (32-25)
- Total (Over/Under): 219.5 points
- Monday, February 13, 2023 at 7:30pm EST
- Watch the game on BSSUN & ALT
The Denver Nuggets visit Miami-Dade Arena to take on the Miami Heat on Monday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Miami.
The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Nuggets vs Heat Over/Under is 219.5 total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 30-26 against the spread, while the Heat are 22-33 against the spread.
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Nuggets vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
Denver Nuggets | -1.5 -105 | O 219.5 -110 | -115 |
Miami Heat | +1.5 -115 | U 219.5 -110 | -105 |
Heat vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Monday‘s game with 55.0% confidence.
Heat vs Nuggets Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Monday‘s game with 55.0% confidence.
These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Nuggets and Heat, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.
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Nuggets Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 38 of their last 53 games (+21.07 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 56 games (+15.90 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 50 of their last 82 games (+13.94 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 30 away games (+8.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+8.16 Units / 25% ROI)
Heat Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 38 of their last 58 games (+15.49 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 75 games (+11.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 21 of their last 29 games (+10.46 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 43 of their last 72 games (+10.17 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games at home (+9.90 Units / 28% ROI)
Denver Nuggets Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 30-26 (+1.4 Units / 2.23% ROI).
- 39-18 against the Moneyline (+13.25 Units / 8.74% ROI)
- 28-29 against the Over for game total points (-3.9 Units / -6.22% ROI)
- 29-28 against the Under for game total points (-1.8 Units / -2.87% ROI)
Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 22-33 (-14.3 Units / -22.81% ROI).
- 32-25 against the Moneyline (-10.95 Units / -9.78% ROI)
- 24-32 against the Over for game total points (-11.2 Units / -17.86% ROI)
- 32-24 against the Under for game total points (+5.6 Units / 8.93% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 21 of their last 60 games (-23.11 Units / -34% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 46 of their last 98 games (-22.65 Units / -16% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 40 of their last 93 games (-20.95 Units / -20% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 29 of their last 72 games (-18.79 Units / -23% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 77 games (-18.50 Units / -22% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Nuggets:
- The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 28 of their last 80 games (-30.54 Units / -34% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 32 of their last 82 games (-24.87 Units / -27% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 41 of their last 83 games (-23.63 Units / -17% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 36 of their last 83 games (-22.75 Units / -21% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 4Q Spread in 33 of their last 78 games (-16.99 Units / -20% ROI)
Jump to:
- Keys to Winning for the Denver Nuggets
- Keys to Winning for the Miami Heat
- Player Injuries for Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat
- Denver Nuggets Offensive stats
- Miami Heat Offensive stats
- Denver Nuggets Defensive stats
- Miami Heat Defensive stats
Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat
The Denver Nuggets are 25-7 (.781) when winning the rebounding margin this season — sixth-best among NBA teams. The Minnesota Timberwolves have averaged 41.3 rebounds per game (2,313 rebounds/56 games) this season — tied for fourth-lowest among NBA teams.
The Denver Nuggets are 18-2 (.900) when they win the turnover margin this season — best among NBA teams. The Minnesota Timberwolves have averaged 15.2 turnovers per game (853 turnovers/56 games) this season — third-highest among NBA teams.
The Denver Nuggets are 38-7 (.844) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams. The Minnesota Timberwolves have averaged 14.3 turnovers per game (1,979 turnovers/138 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — third-highest among NBA teams.
The Nuggets are 42-8 (.840) when forcing 10 or more steals since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .600
Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets
The Miami Heat are 17-6 (.739) when winning the rebounding margin this season — ninth-best among NBA teams. The Indiana Pacers have averaged 42.2 rebounds per game (2,321 rebounds/55 games) this season — ninth-lowest among NBA teams.
The Miami Heat are 53-14 (.791) when winning the rebounding margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — seventh-best among NBA teams. The Indiana Pacers have averaged 43.2 rebounds per game (5,917 rebounds/137 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 10th-lowest among NBA teams.
The Heat are 43-28 (.606) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .540
The Heat are 19-15 (.559) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds since the start of the 2021-22 season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .505
Injury Report: Heat vs. Nuggets – Monday‘s Game, Feb. 13
- Victor Oladipo (Heat): Oladipo is out for Monday’s (Feb. 13) game against Denver.
- Kyle Lowry (Heat): Lowry will miss at least the next three games, according to Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald.
- Nikola Jovic (Heat): Jovic is sidelined for 4 weeks with a lower-back stress reaction and will then be re-evaluated.
- Gabe Vincent (Heat): Vincent is probable for Monday’s (Feb. 13) game against Denver.
- Bam Adebayo (Heat): Adebayo is probable for Monday’s (Feb. 13) game against Denver.
- Haywood Highsmith (Heat): Highsmith is probable for Monday’s (Feb. 13) game against Denver.
- Omer Yurtseven (Heat): The Heat announced that Yurtseven underwent surgery and will be re-evaluated at a later date.
- Tyler Herro (Heat): Herro is questionable for Monday’s (Feb. 13) game against Denver.
- Duncan Robinson (Heat): Robinson will have surgery and will be re-evaluated in four weeks.
- Udonis Haslem (Heat): Haslem is doubtful for Monday’s (Feb. 13) game against Denver.
- Max Strus (Heat): Strus is probable for Monday’s (Feb. 13) game against Denver.
- Aaron Gordon (Nuggets): Gordon is questionable for Monday’s (Feb. 13) game against Miami.
- Collin Gillespie (Nuggets): Gillespie remains without a timetable to make his NBA debut, according to Katy Winge of Altitude Sports.
- Zeke Nnaji (Nuggets): Nnaji is out for Monday’s (Feb. 13) game against Miami.
- Jamal Murray (Nuggets): Murray is questionable for Monday’s (Feb. 13) game against Miami.
Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends
The Nuggets are shooting 51% (4,741/9,281) in the first half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%
The Nuggets are shooting 41% from three (98/242) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33%
The Nuggets are shooting 51% (3,086/6,021) in the first half since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%
The Nuggets have an eFG% of 59% in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 55%
Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 51.8 points per game (2,796 points/54 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.0
The Heat have averaged 52.6 points per game (7,158 points/136 games) in the second half since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 54.9
The Heat have averaged 108.5 points per game (5,859 points/54 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.3
The Heat averaged 108.1 points per game (7,781 points/72 games) in the 2020-21 season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 111.8
Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends
The Nuggets have averaged 4.2 blocks per game (867 blocks/208 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8
The Nuggets have averaged 4.4 blocks per game (239 blocks/54 games) this season — tied for 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7
The Nuggets have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (278 blocks/70 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8
The Nuggets have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (418 blocks/102 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7
Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 2.9 blocks per game (157 blocks/54 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7
The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (200 blocks/67 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8
The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (708 blocks/208 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8
The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (357 blocks/105 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7
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