Warriors vs Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Feb. 2

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Golden State Warriors logo on the left and Denver Nuggets logo on the right
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Feb 02, 2023, 4:30 PM
  • The Nuggets (35-16) are -12.5 favorites vs. the Warriors (26-25)
  • Total (Over/Under): 231.5 points
  • Thursday, February 2, 2023 at 9:00pm EST
  • Watch the game on ALT & NBCS-BA

The Golden State Warriors visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:00pm EST in Denver.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -11.5 (-115).

The Warriors vs Nuggets Over/Under is 232.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Warriors are 24-26 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 26-24 against the spread.


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Warriors vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Golden State Warriors+11.5 -105O 232.5 -110+450
Denver Nuggets -11.5 -115U 232.5 -110-650

Nuggets vs Warriors Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Thursday‘s game with 74.7% confidence.

Nuggets vs Warriors Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Warriors will cover the spread for Thursday‘s game with 51.8% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Warriors and Nuggets, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 60 of their last 99 games (+17.10 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 50 away games (+16.40 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 57 games (+13.90 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 away games (+11.25 Units / 75% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 26 of their last 39 games (+10.85 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 34 of their last 47 games (+19.46 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 21 games at home (+16.20 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 46 of their last 76 games (+12.29 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 32 of their last 48 games (+11.80 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the 1Q Spread in 51 of their last 88 games (+11.80 Units / 12% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Warriors have gone 24-26 (-4.6 Units / -8.2% ROI).

  • 26-25 against the Moneyline (-24.1 Units / -20.08% ROI)
  • 29-21 against the Over for game total points (+5.9 Units / 10.52% ROI)
  • 21-29 against the Under for game total points (-10.9 Units / -19.43% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 26-24 (-0.4 Units / -0.71% ROI).

  • 35-16 against the Moneyline (+12.35 Units / 9.14% ROI)
  • 24-27 against the Over for game total points (-5.7 Units / -10.16% ROI)
  • 27-24 against the Under for game total points (+0.6 Units / 1.07% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 26 of their last 74 games (-27.94 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 43 of their last 88 games (-26.53 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 30 of their last 76 games (-22.37 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 39 of their last 88 games (-22.33 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 4Q Spread in 30 of their last 72 games (-16.65 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 38 of their last 99 games (-30.18 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 100 games (-29.80 Units / -13% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 46 of their last 99 games (-25.54 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 43 of their last 97 games (-22.63 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 40 of their last 95 games (-22.13 Units / -21% ROI)

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Golden State Warriors: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Warriors are 25-18 (.581) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds since the start of the 2021-22 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .506

The Warriors are 26-12 (.684) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .577

The Warriors are 50-9 (.847) when shooting 50% or better from the field since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .781

The Warriors are 63-26 (.708) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .578

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Golden State Warriors

The Denver Nuggets are 15-1 (.938) when they win the turnover margin this season — best among NBA teams. The New Orleans Pelicans have averaged 14.6 turnovers per game (688 turnovers/47 games) this season — tied for sixth-highest among NBA teams.

The Denver Nuggets are 35-6 (.854) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams. The New Orleans Pelicans have averaged 13.8 turnovers per game (1,777 turnovers/129 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for eighth-highest among NBA teams.

The Nuggets are 35-6 (.854) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .576

The Nuggets are 40-8 (.833) when forcing 10 or more steals since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .599

Injury Report: Nuggets vs. WarriorsThursday‘s Game, Feb. 2

  • Aaron Gordon (Nuggets): Gordon is questionable for Thursday’s (Feb. 2) game against Golden State.
  • Jack White (Nuggets): White is out for Thursday’s (Feb. 2) game against Golden State.
  • Collin Gillespie (Nuggets): Gillespie remains without a timetable to make his NBA debut, according to Katy Winge of Altitude Sports.
  • Andre Iguodala (Warriors): Iguodala hasn’t played since Jan. 13 against San Antonio and it’s unclear when he’ll return to the lineup.

Golden State Warriors Offensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors have made 16.4 three-pointers per game this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.3

The Warriors have made 15.6 three-pointers per game at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.6

The Warriors have 20.3 free throw attempts per game since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 22.6

The Warriors have 20.3 free throw attempts per game this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 23.8

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets are shooting 42% from three (88/209) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33%

The Nuggets have an eFG% of 58% in the first half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 54%

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (2,924/5,710) in the first half since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (4,579/8,970) in the first half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

Golden State Warriors Defensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors have averaged 34.9 defensive rebounds per game (7,017 rebounds/201 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.9

The Warriors have averaged 8.1 steals per game (1,050 steals/129 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Warriors have averaged 35.1 defensive rebounds per game (4,527 rebounds/129 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.7

The Warriors have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (181 blocks/47 games) this season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (512 blocks/129 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Nuggets have averaged 4.2 blocks per game (835 blocks/201 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Nuggets have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (397 blocks/98 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Nuggets have averaged 4.3 blocks per game (438 blocks/103 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.