Alabama vs. Auburn: Prediction, Pick, Odds Preview

Power conferences play their regular season finales this weekend, and the SEC is giving college basketball fans an excellent sendoff.

It’s Alabama and Auburn. The rematch. Early afternoon. ESPN. 

On Saturday, it’s sure to be the No. 1 event on the online sports betting calendar.

Alabama vs. Auburn Odds

• Alabama vs. Auburn Point Spread: TBD
• Alabama vs. Auburn Moneyline: TBD
• Alabama vs. Auburn Over/Under: TBD

Alabama vs. Auburn Preview

No one gets through this SEC schedule unscathed, which is why Alabama and Auburn – both top 10 teams – have each dropped games in the past week. 

Auburn’s Tuesday loss at Texas A&M was a bit of a shocker, as the Tigers had only lost two other games for the entire season. I wrote about the Aggies’ losing skid in my Auburn vs. Texas A&M preview.

Alabama has had a tougher run, losing four of its last six games and imperiling its quest for a top seed. That said, it’s hard to blame head coach Nate Oats’ squad. Alabama closes with seven straight ranked opponents, three of which are road games. 

Let’s focus in on the game that started the skid, which was the first game against Auburn. The game turned on All-American Mark Sears’s game against the Tigers, and Auburn held him to a 4-for-17 outing. Auburn’s defense repeatedly collapsed on him, sending him to the line for plenty of free throws but struggling to find the bottom of the net without the charity stripe. 

Three other players reached double figures for Alabama, including bench guards Labaron Philon and Aden Holloway, but that wasn’t enough against a very good Auburn team. 

Bettors can probably expect a similar defensive plan for Sears on Saturday. Oats will need to set up effective interior passing rules for when the Auburn defense overhelps. 

On the Auburn side, the A&M loss produced a fascinating box score. Auburn shot 50% from the field as a team, including nine three-pointers on 41% shooting behind the arc. It had more blocks, more steals, and was 13-for-15 from the free-throw line. 

It’s very difficult to lose a college basketball game with numbers like that. But Texas A&M relied on its traditional strength – rebounding – to bludgeon Auburn with bonus possessions and second-chance points. The Aggies were +16 on the glass and pulled down a whopping 24 offensive boards, allowing them to overcome Auburn’s strong shooting performance.

While Alabama is a better rebounding team than Auburn, it’s not quite Texas A&M. I don’t think the Crimson Tide’s marginal rebounding advantage will help it close the gap against the national championship favorite on the road.

Alabama vs. Auburn Prediction

I am predicting an Auburn win against archrival Alabama on Saturday.

The key to betting this game is where the spread falls. KenPom is projecting a 10-point margin, which feels awfully heavy given Alabama’s increasing desperation for a late-season win against a strong opponent. 

I am expecting an Auburn win, so the moneyline is in play as a potential parlay builder. But if the spread market opens at Auburn -9.5 or more, I’ll probably be looking to take the points with Alabama.