- No. 12 Kentucky will host Arkansas at 8:30 p.m. ET on Saturday (ESPN).
- I predict John Calipari’s Razorbacks to cover the spread against his former team.
John Calipari will make his much-anticipated return to Lexington when the No. 12 Kentucky Wildcats (15-5, 4-3 SEC) host the Arkansas Razorbacks (12-8, 1-6) at 9 p.m. ET on Saturday in Rupp Arena on ESPN.
This offseason, Calipari left Kentucky after 14 years as the team’s head coach to take the same job at Arkansas.
Since the calendar flipped to January, the Razorbacks have lost six of their past seven games, while the Wildcats are coming off a 78-73 road win over No. 8 Tennessee under Mark Pope’s leadership.
Here is a look at the latest Arkansas vs. Kentucky college basketball odds and my prediction for Saturday’s showdown.
Arkansas vs. Kentucky College Basketball Odds, Feb. 1
- Projected point spread: Kentucky -11
- Projected total: 157
While odds for this matchup aren’t yet available at the BetMGM online sportsbook, KenPom projects an 84-73 victory for the Wildcats. That would make Kentucky an 11-point home favorite with an over/under of 157.
I’ll use this projection as a guideline for what to expect when the market is released.
Arkansas vs. Kentucky Prediction – Saturday, Feb. 1
Based on KenPom’s projection, my Arkansas vs. Kentucky college basketball prediction would be to take the points with the Razorbacks in a game that could be more of a battle than this line would suggest.
This is the only game that truly matters to Calipari in his first season, so I expect his team to give their best effort.
More importantly, the market might give us a discount after Kentucky’s impressive win over Tennessee on Tuesday. The Wildcats climbed from No. 22 overall to No. 18 on KenPom, which could impact the projected spread.
But Kentucky has underwhelmed in SEC play. This month, the Wildcats have suffered conference losses to Vanderbilt (No. 45 on KenPom) and Georgia (No. 37).
The Razorbacks (No. 58 on KenPom) probably won’t pull off an upset, but the projected 11-point spread is too big of a gap between these teams.
Prediction: Arkansas +11
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