College Basketball Odds, Predictions: Two NCAA Tournament Betting Systems

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Clemson head coach Brad Brownell directs his team against Wake Forest during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in Winston-Salem, N.C., Tuesday, Jan. 17, 2023.
(AP Photo/Chuck Burton)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Mar 25, 2024, 4:18 PM
  • When bettors should buy high on a NCAA Tournament underdog.
  • A 61% winning system suggests taking slow-paced favorites and underdogs.
  • Read on for today’s system matches for the NCAA Tournament.

The NCAA Tournament provides ample wagering opportunities for college basketball bettors. 

However, certain angles can be especially profitable for bettors looking to boost their bankroll. 

Based on the college basketball odds, these two scenarios have proved a winning strategy for bettors recently. 

NCAA Tournament System: Bet Slow-Paced Teams vs. Fast-Paced Teams

Beware of fading teams that like to slow the pace and try to drag teams into the mud with them. 

Since the 2009-10 NCAA Tournament, underdogs with a pace average south of 70.5 facing a favorite with a pace average north of 73 are 61.5% ATS. 

Over that span a $100 bettor would finish up $3,302. 

Even more encouraging – this system applies to both favorites and underdogs that fit the former designation. Favorites are 47-27-1 ATS while dogs are 57-38-3 ATS in that spot.

Since the beginning of the 2021-22 NCAA Tournament, this system is 14-4 ATS in favor of the slow-paced team.

For the upcoming regional semifinal games, Clemson (+7.5) vs. Arizona is the lone match for this system.

NCAA Tournament System: Bet Underdogs Off Big Outright Win Late in Tournament

Whereas underdogs tend to struggle against the spread in the round of 32, dogs off a win as underdogs tend to do well in the later rounds.

Sample teams seeded fifth through 15th off an outright win as underdogs in the Sweet 16 or Elite 8 and bettors will find such teams are 41-28-4 ATS as underdogs. Comparatively, those teams are 59-78-1 ATS in the round of 32.

One note within this system – it’s much more profitable in the Elite 8. Such teams are 24-25-3 ATS in the Sweet 16 following this trend, but they’re 17-3-1 ATS in the Elite 8.

The lone team that matches this system for the upcoming Sweet 16 games is Clemson (+7.5) against Arizona.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.