- Duke vs. Arizona kicks off at 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
- Arizona is one of the fastest adjusted tempo teams in Division I.
Duke’s challenging nonconference schedule continues Friday evening with a road trip to Tucson for a top 20 game against the Arizona Wildcats.
Duke basketball odds may have taken a small ding after last week’s loss to Kentucky, but I believe there are still good entry points to betting this game in both the spread and total market.
Duke vs. Arizona Preview
Yes, Duke lost to Kentucky and is no longer among the ranks of the undefeated. But even with that ink now dry, we can still be pretty confident that Duke is a good team. Cooper Flagg – still 17 years old by the way – will continue to get better.
I’m a little less sold on Arizona. The Wildcats lost a lot in the portal over the offseason, including Oumar Ballo, who was a two-time First Team Pac-12 selection and spent much of last season in the Wooden Award odds table.
Arizona was a preseason AP Top 25 team, as it is most years, but opening wins against Canisius and ODU don’t tell me much. The road loss to Wisconsin isn’t season-breaking, but it’s enough to raise questions about whether or not Arizona is in the same class of teams as Duke.
So on the side, I’m expecting Duke to win and cover here. My feeling is that Arizona’s frontcourt has some raw size, with 7-footers Henri Veesaar and Motiejus Krivas, but it won’t quite stack up to Duke’s in terms of technical skill. Arizona’s early-season dominance on the offensive boards will be challenged.
The better angle on this game is probably the total. Per KenPom, Tommy Lloyd’s Wildcats are playing with the sixth-fastest adjusted tempo in men’s college basketball, and they’re holding the ball fewer than 15 seconds per adjusted possession. That pace is why Arizona has scored 93, 102, and 88 points in its three early games so far.
Duke plays at a slower tempo, but is incredibly efficient with its offensive possessions – perhaps because of the strong inside-out game it can challenge opposing defenses with.
I was on the under in my Kentucky vs. Duke preview, but I’ll take the other side in this game.
Duke vs. Arizona Prediction
I am predicting an over and a Duke win and cover. I think Friday night’s Duke vs. Arizona game provides an excellent opportunity to parlay both the side and total together in a quality SGP.
Duke vs. Arizona Pick: Over; Lean: Duke
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