Duke vs. Kentucky: Prediction, Pick, Odds Preview

Chase Kiddy Nov 12, 2024, 12:17 PM

min read

Duke's Caleb Foster (1) handles the ball during NCAA college basketball exhibition game against Lincoln in Durham, N.C., Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024.

(AP Photo/Ben McKeown)

Kentucky vs. Duke kicks off at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Kentucky and Duke totaled 399 combined points in four early nonconference games.

The online sports betting calendar is pretty crowded right now, but don’t sleep on college hoops.

NCAA basketball is continuing to deliver compelling showdowns in the opening days of the season with a Tuesday game between No. 7 Duke and No. 23 Kentucky.

Duke vs. Kentucky Odds

Point Spread: Duke -6.5
Moneyline: Duke -250 | Kentucky +195
Total: 160.5

Duke vs. Kentucky Preview

After a pair of warmup games against sub-150 KenPom opponents, Duke and Kentucky are set to play in Atlanta on Tuesday as part of the State Farm Champions Classic.

Duke is the higher-ranked team and is thus favored to win by the early market. It also has the most visible player – Cooper Flagg – who would likely be a Wooden Award odds favorite if he wasn’t still 17 years old. (Understandably, sportsbooks are prohibited from offering odds on minors.)

With Kentucky breaking in a post-Calipari coaching staff, and Duke dealing with a major roster makeover after losing its four top scorers from last year’s team, this game offers a difficult handicap if you’re aiming to play a side.

It’s a true gamble on which side looks better – in November, no less.

The total offers a better entry point into the market. After nonconference games that regularly spawned 100 points of offense, Duke and Kentucky will now play a much more intense and defensively competent game against peer teams. Even after adjusting for opponents, I still suspect that the efficiency numbers are off.

Add in the fact that neutral-site unders are a time-tested strategy in college basketball, and we’ve got a clear (if boring) idea on how to bet this game.