Duke vs. Kentucky: Prediction, Pick, Odds Preview

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Duke's Caleb Foster (1) handles the ball during NCAA college basketball exhibition game against Lincoln in Durham, N.C., Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024.
(AP Photo/Ben McKeown)
Chase Kiddy @chaseakiddy Nov 12, 2024, 12:17 PM
  • Kentucky vs. Duke kicks off at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN.
  • Kentucky and Duke totaled 399 combined points in four early nonconference games.

The online sports betting calendar is pretty crowded right now, but donโ€™t sleep on college hoops.ย 

NCAA basketball is continuing to deliver compelling showdowns in the opening days of the season with a Tuesday game between No. 7 Duke and No. 23 Kentucky.

Duke vs. Kentucky Odds

  • Point Spread: Duke -6.5
  • Moneyline: Duke -250ย  |ย  Kentucky +195
  • Total: 160.5

Duke vs. Kentucky Preview

After a pair of warmup games against sub-150 KenPom opponents, Duke and Kentucky are set to play in Atlanta on Tuesday as part of the State Farm Champions Classic.ย 

Duke is the higher-ranked team and is thus favored to win by the early market. It also has the most visible player โ€“ Cooper Flagg โ€“ who would likely be aย Wooden Award odds favorite if he wasnโ€™t still 17 years old. (Understandably, sportsbooks are prohibited from offering odds on minors.)

With Kentucky breaking in a post-Calipari coaching staff, and Duke dealing with a major roster makeover after losing its four top scorers from last yearโ€™s team, this game offers a difficult handicap if youโ€™re aiming to play a side.ย 

Itโ€™s a true gamble on which side looks better โ€“ in November, no less.

The total offers a better entry point into the market. After nonconference games that regularly spawned 100 points of offense, Duke and Kentucky will now play a much more intense and defensively competent game against peer teams. Even after adjusting for opponents, I still suspect that the efficiency numbers are off.

Add in the fact that neutral-site unders are a time-tested strategy in college basketball, and weโ€™ve got a clear (if boring) idea on how to bet this game.

Duke vs. Kentucky Prediction

I am predicting an under in Tuesdayโ€™s Duke vs. Kentucky game in Atlanta.ย 

Duke vs. Kentucky Pick: Under 160.5

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About the Author

Chase Kiddy

Read More @chaseakiddy

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.