NFL Betting Predictions: My 5 Favorite Week 1 Teaser Legs

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Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) during an NFL preseason football game against the Cleveland Browns Saturday, Aug. 26, 2023, in Kansas City, Mo.
(AP Photo/Ed Zurga)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Sep 05, 2023, 12:08 PM
  • The case for two AFC North teams in a six-point teaser.
  • Are the Kansas City Chiefs an obvious teaser leg on Thursday Night Football?
  • Read on to get my five favorite teaser legs for Week 1.

Amongst the countless Week 1 NFL odds markets at the BetMGM Sportsbook, one option for bettors is a teaser. 

Largely popular amongst recreational bettors, a teaser allows bettors to move multiple lines in their favor with varying payouts depending on the total legs. 

What’s a Teaser Bet & How Do They Work? 

In a teaser bet, bettors select two or more markets in which they’d like to adjust the line. The most common adjustment is six points, though BetMGM allows players to move lines by any amount between six and 14 points. 

However, bettors pay a premium to move the line through key numbers. In the NFL, these numbers are three, six, seven, 10, 14 and 17. 

In a two-team, six-point teaser, bettors have to lay -130. In a three-team, six-point teaser, the price rises to +160. 

Bettors can include as many legs as they want. But remember, all legs have to cash for the whole bet to win, making teasers with more teams inherently riskier. 

With teasers, bettors should remember two things. 

First, always tease through the key numbers. Second, never tease through zero. 

My other recommendation is to focus on home teams. Some handicappers will utilize road teams in a teaser, but I’ve found visitors experience more volatile results. 

Bettors should learn the BetMGM house rules associated with teasers pushing. If a leg pushes in a teaser with three or more legs, the leg is removed and the odds are recalculated. 

In a two-team teaser, if one leg pushes, the entire bet pushes and bettors are refunded their stake. 

NFL Betting Predictions: Best Week 1 Teaser Legs

With rules and best practices established, allow me to present my five best NFL Week 1 teaser legs in order of confidence. 

Best NFL Week 1 Teaser Leg No. 1: Steelers +8.5

Mike Tomlin is historically brilliant as an underdog. For his career, he’s 53-40-4 ATS as an underdog. 

Giving him six additional points is a great choice for bettors. Plus, the real edge in this teaser is that the points are more meaningful given the low over/under (41). 

If the game proves low scoring as oddsmakers expect, the chances of a 49ers blowout decrease. 

The Steelers finished a perfect 8-0 against this teaser number at home last season.

Best NFL Week 1 Teaser Leg No. 2: Chiefs -0.5

The Lions are a formidable foe in Week 1, but the fact remains Kansas City finished 9-1 straight up at home last season (playoffs included). 

Meanwhile, the Lions earned zero road wins last season against teams who participated in the playoffs. 

There’s enough worry with the Kansas City defense rendering them not as obvious a teaser as the public would like to believe. However, I’ll be surprised if they fail to win outright. 

Best NFL Week 1 Teaser Leg No. 3: Browns +8.5

Home underdogs to a public darling? Color me interested in the Browns as a teaser option. 

The Bengals finished 13-6 ATS last season, but one blemish came in their trip to Cleveland. In a Week 8 trip, the Bengals lost 32-13. 

Cleveland presents loads of matchup problems for the Bengals. Their defense — headlined by the defensive line and secondary — matches up well with a weak Bengals offensive line and strong receiving corps. 

Cincinnati also ranked 14th in rush defense DVOA last season. In Week 1, they face a Browns rushing attack that ranked sixth in the corresponding offensive category. 

In a divisional matchup where both teams own high levels of familiarity, I’ll be surprised if the Bengals can pull off a sizable victory in Week 1. 

Best NFL Week 1 Teaser Leg No. 4: Patriots +9.5

The total for Patriots vs. Eagles is set at 45, yet I’m expecting a low-scoring contest, as noted in my Week 1 NFL betting predictions. 

If that theory proves true, there’s a strong correlation with success for the underdog. Thus, I’ll tease the Patriots up through the key numbers of six and seven to give them a cushion against the reigning NFC champions. 

Last season, the Eagles finished far more profitable against the spread at home. On the road, they produced a win by double-digits in only three of eight regular season road games. 

Those opponents? The Commanders, Texans, and Giants. 

Say what you will about the Patriots, but their defense is better than all three of those teams. That should allow them to stay competitive against top opponents in Foxborough, beginning with the Eagles. 

Best NFL Week 1 Teaser Leg No. 5: Jets +8.5

Last season, the Jets played competitive head-to-head meetings against the Bills, including a 20-17 home win in Week 8. 

Perhaps even more impressive is they accomplished those results without a serviceable quarterback. Adding Aaron Rodgers as their signal-caller should bolster their level of competition against a top-tier Bills side. 

Plus, in similar thinking to Patriots-Eagles, my expectation is that Monday’s encounter proves a low-scoring affair. Both teams possess outstanding defensive units, which should produce few points. 

If that’s the case, head coach Robert Saleh’s side has an exponentially better chance of keeping this game within eight and a half points. 

My one worry with the Jets? There’s a game script where the Bills dominate their defense and an offense unfamiliar with one another struggles to score points. 

Although unlikely, that renders my confidence in the Jets weaker than the four other sides.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.