49ers vs. Chiefs Prediction: How to Bet Super Bowl LVIII Alt Lines

Ahead of Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, I’m here to offer a 49ers vs. Chiefs prediction. 

Rather than focusing on the full game spread or total – be sure to check out those Super Bowl LVIII Predictions – I’ll break down the myriad alternate lines available for the Big Game. 

For those unfamiliar with these markets, alternate lines offer bettors the chance to move the spread in their favor for a worse price or lay points with an underdog for an increased payout. 

Here’s a look at some key alternate NFL betting lines for Super Bowl LVIII, along with my bets. 

49ers vs. Chiefs Betting Odds – Key Alternate Lines

49ers vs. Chiefs Betting Prediction – Alternate Lines

Chiefs Alternate Line (-3, +140) | Chiefs Alternate Line (-6.5, +220, 0.5 unit)

Of the alternate lines available to bettors, these two jump out at me. 

The first line is rather self-explanatory: if you think the Chiefs will win the game, it’s historically advantageous to lay points even though they’re an underdog. 

Across the last 20 Super Bowls, underdogs are 9-11 straight up. In those nine wins, they’ve come by an average of 11.4 points per game. 

In those nine victories, only two have come by exactly three points

The Super Bowl has landed on one or two points only once in the last 57 games, so -3 at +140 is worth a bet rather than taking the Kansas City moneyline at +110. 

As for the Chiefs -7, this is moreso the disaster scenario for the 49ers. 

San Francisco has played five games this season against the AFC, going 2-3 straight up in those games. 

I’m willing to accept the fact that Deebo Samuel missed some of those games, but they still lost by 14 at home to the Ravens at full strength. 

Was it because Brock Purdy turned the ball over four times? Almost certainly. 

However, the Chiefs defense is no joke – I don’t expect San Francisco is capable of blowing them out – so if Purdy makes enough mistakes, it could get ugly in a hurry. 

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs just beat the Ravens by seven, so another high margin doesn’t feel too far outside the realm of possibility. 

Plus, bettors should do well to remember the Super Bowl is rarely a close contest. 

Since Super Bowl 34 in January 2000, 13 games have been decided within six points. Over that same span, only nine have landed on three or four points. 

At 11 wins of seven points or more, that’s a hit rate of 44%, while these odds suggest an implied probability of 27%. 

For those reasons, taking the Chiefs -6.5 is worth a bet at north of +200.