49ers vs. Chiefs Prediction: How to Bet Super Bowl LVIII First Quarter

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San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) passes against the New York Giants during the second half of an NFL football game in Santa Clara, Calif., Thursday, Sept. 21, 2023.
(Jed Jacobsohn/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Feb 11, 2024, 2:36 PM
  • The 49ers are -120 moneyline favorites for the first quarter.
  • The total for the first quarter is 7.5 points.
  • Take this player prop angle for the first quarter.

Ahead of Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, I’m here to offer a 49ers vs. Chiefs prediction. 

Rather than focusing on the full game spread or total – be sure to check out those Super Bowl LVIII Predictions – I’ll break down the first quarter spread, total and moneyline below. 

Here’s a look at those NFL betting lines for Super Bowl LVIII, along with my bets for the first quarter.

49ers vs. Chiefs Betting Odds – First

  • San Francisco 49ers Moneyline: -120
  • Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline: +100
  • First Quarter Spread: 49ers -0.5 (+125)
  • First Quarter Total: 7.5 Points (Over: -120)

49ers vs. Chiefs Betting Prediction – First Quarter

Brock Purdy First Quarter Passing Yards Under 54.5 (-140)

It’s a steep number to lay, but Purdy generally receives a smaller usage in the early goings. 

In situations this season where the game is tied, Purdy has attempted only 82 passes and has completed 59 for 666 yards, per NFL.com. 

In the first quarter alone, Purdy has attempted only 118 passes and amassed 916 yards for an average of 7.7 yards per attempt. 

Even if you expand the sample to account for the game being tied, the 49ers leading by eight or less or the Chiefs leading by eight or less, Purdy doesn’t really amass yardage. 

In those three states, he’s attempted 299 passes for an average of 9.1 yards per attempt. 

However, I don’t expect the 49ers will want to challenge this Chiefs secondary early on and will elect to run the ball behind Christian McCaffrey. 

Even if they do turn to Purdy, expect short throws to help him into the biggest game of his young career. 

Moreover, the other element to consider here is Kansas City’s outstanding pass defense. 

At only 181.5 yards per game, the Chiefs surrendered the fourth-fewest passing yards in the league this season. 

That qualifies them as the second-hardest opponent for the 49ers in terms of passing yards allowed. 

I’m electing to discard the previous game – it came in rainy Cleveland without Deebo Samuel. 

As a result, the Chiefs are, for all intents and purposes, the hardest pass defense they’ll have faced all season. 

The Chiefs held Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson under this number in the first quarter and do an excellent job defending the deep ball. 

During the regular season, they ranked fourth in DVOA defending the deep ball, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Add in Purdy’s average depth of target for the entire season came in at 8.5 yards, and I’ll be surprised if he clears this number early.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.