- The 49ers are a 1.5-point home favorite against the Chiefs.
- The Chiefs have won seven straight games as market underdogs.
- My 49ers vs. Chiefs prediction is for the Chiefs to cover the spread.
All eyes will be on Levi’s Stadium this Sunday as the 49ers welcome the Chiefs for a Super Bowl 58 rematch.
San Francisco has ample time to prepare for the Chiefs after capturing a Week 6 road win on Thursday Night Football in Seattle. With that win, the 49ers sit atop the NFC West.
Kansas City (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) covered three straight contests prior to its Week 6 bye. However, this marks the first game of the year they’re a market underdog.
Bet on 49ers vs. Chiefs and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 7 Odds: 49ers vs. Chiefs
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | +1.5 (-110) | 47 (-110) | +100 |
| 49ers | -1.5 (-110) | 47 (-110) | -120 |
49ers vs. Chiefs Prediction
Based on Patrick Mahomes’ outstanding record as a market underdog and the 49ers’ red zone struggles, my 49ers vs. Chiefs prediction is the Chiefs Spread (+1.5, -110).
Mahomes has closed an underdog 14 times in the regular and postseason. He’s a phenomenal 12-1-1 ATS in those spots, including 3-0-1 ATS in non-conference games.
Even if the spread moves in Kansas City’s direction, it would have to be a sizable move to sway me off the Chiefs.
Mahomes, in games where he’s either an underdog or a favorite of -3 or shorter, 25-8-1 ATS, including 8-3-1 ATS in non-conference games.
Not to mention the fact Andy Reid is exquisite historically with extra time to prepare.
Give Reid 11 or more days between contests in game four onward and he’s 12-9 ATS, including 4-3 ATS when priced between -3 and +4.5.
From a stats standpoint, there’s a clear advantage for the Chiefs in Sunday’s game.
San Francisco’s struggles this season have come in their ability to score from the red zone. Entering Week 6, the 49ers are 25th in touchdown percentage from inside the 20-yard line.
The Chiefs sit 10th in the corresponding defensive category. Critically, Kansas City has allowed only two rushing touchdowns inside the 10-yard line.
When the 49ers reach that field position, they’ve historically run the ball. To date, Jordan Mason owns 79% of attempts from inside the 10-yard line.
But given Kansas City’s stout run defense – seventh in rush EPA per play, 10th in rush success rate – it’s reasonable to expect San Francisco’s red zone struggles to continue.
Pair that with the fact Mahomes shredded this defense for 333 yards in Super Bowl 58, and I’ll take the Chiefs as the underdog.
Alternatively, this line offers good teaser potential on the Chiefs (+7.5) paired with the Rams (-0.5). Head to my Rams vs. Raiders prediction for the additional analysis.
49ers vs. Chiefs: NFL Public Betting Trends
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 81% | 76% | 85% | 53% |
| 49ers | 19% | 24% | 15% | 47% |
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