- Aaron Rodgers and the Packers might be looking to split up.
- The Jets, Raiders and Cowboys would all make sense for Rodgers.
No amount of statistics or figures could properly quantify how important Aaron Rodgers has been to the Packers. Nor could they explain the headaches caused by Rodgers’ consistent waffling on whether he’ll retire.
Even while speculation swirls about his next career move, Rodgers is in the top 10 for NFL betting odds in next season’s MVP race as of March 1. But will he make a case for another MVP award with Green Bay, or could it be with another team?
The possibilities are endless and tantalizing, especially now that the Super Bowl is over and the offseason has begun.
Aaron Rodgers Contract
Rodgers signed a three-year, $150.8 million deal with the Packers, fully guaranteed. That’s an average annual value of $50.3 million.
In 2023, Rodgers will have a $31.6 million cap hit and dead cap value of $100 million with a base salary of $1.2 million and a signing bonus of $58.3 million.
Does a Green Bay Packers-Aaron Rodgers Trade Make Sense?
Trading Rodgers away is financially practical for the Packers. But the outlook of their 2023 season would look drastically different.
The Packers are in the bottom half of the league with minus-$8.8 million in 2023 cap space. Rodgers’ cap hit takes up 14% of the team’s overall cap.
Among seasons in which Rodgers played 10 or more games, his 3,695 yards were a career low, and his 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions were each one away from tying his worst marks. Rodgers was 21st in DVOA and 16th in DYAR in 2022.
His performance was not the only reason the Packers staggered early and missed the playoffs. Their defense was 20th in DVOA, for example.
Aaron Rodgers to Aaron Jones puts the @Packers ahead! #GoPackGo
📺: #GBvsBAL on FOX
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/TLwkzWTaT8— NFL (@NFL) December 19, 2021
But their offensive line was top six in both adjusted line yards on the ground and adjusted sack rate, and their young wide receiving corps featuring Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Allen Lazard should only improve.
The Packers will probably take a step back if they deal Rodgers and turn to Jordan Love, a former first-round pick out of Utah State who has mostly been on the bench the past three seasons.
But now is the time for Green Bay to move on. The Packers need to know how Love can handle full-time starter duties before his rookie contract expires.
They should be willing to get Rodgers’ contract off the books, receive something in return and make a clear path forward — without wondering if he’s going to retire at any moment and host “Jeopardy!”
500th career TD pass for Aaron Rodgers!
📺: #NEvsGB on CBS
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/YPHqeLC4zg pic.twitter.com/9o5YhUQV1i— NFL (@NFL) October 2, 2022
New York Jets-Aaron Rodgers Trade Potential
Rodgers going to the Jets would be a win-win-win for those two parties and the Packers — if the Jets can work out their cap space situation.
The Jets are also in a deficit for cap space in 2023 at minus-$2.4 million. However, they could change that pretty quickly. They could release wide receiver Corey Davis, who’s seventh on the team among largest cap hits, and save $10.5 million if they wanted to, for example.
The Packers’ desired return is unclear, but the Jets could offer this year’s 13th overall pick and other draft capital next season for Rodgers.
Rodgers would have to acclimate to a team with young receivers once again, but New York has plenty of talent at the skill positions. Garrett Wilson was the Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2022, running back Breece Hall could shine if he stays healthy in his sophomore season and Elijah Moore might finally emerge as an above-average wideout with Rodgers throwing to him.
Rodgers should also be comfortable in the Jets’ offensive system. Nathaniel Hackett became their offensive coordinator this offseason after a disastrous year as the head coach in Denver, but Rodgers had expressed confidence in Hackett when he was the Packers’ OC from 2019-21.
This release from @GarrettWilson_V is nasty. 🤧@nyjets | #TakeFlight pic.twitter.com/zSpgQeAMXt
— NFL (@NFL) November 8, 2022
Rodgers may not face as much pressure to score as he did in Green Bay, as the Jets were fifth in total defensive DVOA. But he might deal with more pressure in the pocket because the Jets were 17th in adjusted sack rate and last in the NFL in adjusted line yards.
Before the Jets lost six straight games to end the season, they were in the playoff hunt. And that was with Joe Flacco, Mike White and Zach Wilson all starting games at quarterback.
Rodgers sure looks like a missing piece in this equation.
Breece Hall does it again! 😱 @BreeceH
📺: #NYJvsDEN on CBS
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/FWWyCS9aA1 pic.twitter.com/YyTvuJVl87— NFL (@NFL) October 23, 2022
Is a Las Vegas Raiders-Aaron Rodgers Trade Possible?
Reuniting Rodgers with former Packer and current Raiders star wide receiver Davante Adams would be exciting to say the least.
In eight seasons with Green Bay, Adams averaged 1,015.1 yards and 9.1 touchdowns on 83.6 receptions per year. He’s made the Pro Bowl every year since 2017 and has been an All-Pro each of the last three seasons.
The Raiders released Derek Carr, so obviously they need a new quarterback. Rodgers is aiming to still win MVPs, as he has said publicly, and Las Vegas wouldn’t be a bad place to go.
Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams score touchdowns. It's what they do. #GoPackGo
📺: #GBvsSF on NFLN/FOX/PRIME VIDEO
📱: https://t.co/W5bCPYgMfo pic.twitter.com/I1XGr8h3ID— NFL (@NFL) November 6, 2020
Wide receiver Hunter Renfrow and tight end Darren Waller, who have both been Pro Bowlers, are still under contract. Josh Jacobs won the NFL’s rushing title with 1,653 yards last season, and perhaps he would consider coming back to Las Vegas with Rodgers on the team.
The Raiders are also in a prime position to take on Rodgers’ contract and make additional moves. They have the third-most cap space in 2023 with $46.3 million, but they also need defensive help. They finished 31st in total DVOA.
Las Vegas has the seventh overall pick in this year’s draft. They could use that, or other picks, to acquire Rodgers and craft a formidable roster in the AFC West.
Possible Dallas Cowboys-Aaron Rodgers Trade
Don’t rule out Rodgers heading to Dallas. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones loves to make splashy moves, and this would qualify.
This isn’t impossible if the Packers would want Dak Prescott and his contract instead of trusting Love to take over behind center.
Both Prescott and Rodgers have two years left on their deals. Both of them have a collective $100 million in cap hits over those two seasons. The Packers and Cowboys would be looking at similar financial situations as the ones they are already dealing with.
Prescott is younger, as he’ll be 30 in 2023, but Rodgers brings more upside. Prescott seems happy in Dallas, so he would probably need a reason to go to Green Bay especially because he has a no-trade clause in his contract.
If the Cowboys consider a trade and want to move on from him, and the Packers believe in him enough that they would give up Rodgers, perhaps that’s reason enough.
The Cowboys have built an elite defense around young star Micah Parsons, ranking second in total defensive DVOA. They were also fourth in adjusted sack rate, giving Rodgers the protection he needs.
With CeeDee Lamb on the roster, Rodgers could keep this offense explosive. Considering how promising the Cowboys have been in recent years, only to fall short of even conference championship appearances, maybe a move for Rodgers is just the change needed.
CEEDEE. #DallasCowboys
📺: #DALvsMIN on FOX
📱: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app: https://t.co/tUoK0wsA9N pic.twitter.com/82SyWUpzYy— NFL (@NFL) November 22, 2020
The NFL Trade for Aaron Rodgers That Makes Sense
The Jets should be the ones to trade for Rodgers if he leaves the Packers at all and if New York doesn’t want another quarterback.
First, I believe Rodgers plays in 2023 and not for Green Bay. For multiple offseasons, Rodgers has been frustrated with the Packers.
Love is still waiting his turn, and this offseason is a parallel for when Rodgers became the Packers’ quarterback after Brett Favre moved on. The franchise chose to see what the young kid could do, and it paid off for the following decade.
The Packers shouldn’t be shortsighted here either. Whether Love proves to be elite or not, they need to know before seeing him hit free agency and a first-round pick proves useless.
Just ridiculous precision from Aaron Rodgers. #GoPackGo
📺: #GBvsBAL on FOX
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/BjHdyBMseE— NFL (@NFL) December 19, 2021
Rodgers has also made clear that he can still play at a high level, and he’s expressed confidence some good seasons could still be ahead of him. He’s no longer at his peak, but he’s just a year removed from his reign as back-to-back MVP.
The Cowboys and Raiders may want a new quarterback, but Dallas is still a top-notch team with Prescott, and the Raiders are on the fringe of rebuilding if they can’t figure out their defensive issues.
The Jets need a quarterback. Now.
Their situation is different. They’re one signal-caller away from playoff and Super Bowl contention and don’t have time to develop one. Carr is reportedly in the mix, but it wouldn’t be smart of the Jets to ignore Rodgers.
They could accomplish so much together. And if it doesn’t go well, at least it will be entertaining.
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