Bears vs 49ers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 14

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(Kyusung Gong/AP Photo)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 04, 2024, 3:05 PM

The 49ers are -4 point favorites vs the Bears
Total (Over/Under): 44 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Chicago Bears (4-8-0) visit Levi’s Stadium to take on the San Francisco 49ers (5-7-0) on Dec. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EST in Santa Clara, CA.

The 49ers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -4 (-110).

The Bears vs. 49ers Over/Under is 44 total points for the game.

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Bears vs. 49ers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Bears	+4 -110	44 -110	+165
49ers	-4 -110	44 -110	-200

Bears vs. 49ers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the 49ers will win this game with 54.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Bears vs 49ers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bears will cover the spread with 52.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bears players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bears Player Prop Bets Today

Caleb Williams has hit the Interceptions Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.30 Units / 73% ROI)
Roschon Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.65 Units / 52% ROI)
Cole Kmet has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.80 Units / 34% ROI)
Caleb Williams has hit the Pass Attempts Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 88% ROI)
Cole Kmet has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.35 Units / 25% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for 49ers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best 49ers Player Prop Best Bets Today

Brock Purdy has hit the TD Passes Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+9.30 Units / 90% ROI)
Brock Purdy has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.45 Units / 33% ROI)
Jauan Jennings has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+6.00 Units / 36% ROI)
Christian McCaffrey has hit the Carries Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.45 Units / 44% ROI)
Brock Purdy has hit the Completions Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.25 Units / 41% ROI)

Bears Best Bets:

The Chicago Bears have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 21 games (+6.55 Units / 28% ROI)
The Chicago Bears have scored first in their last 5 games (+5.10 Units / 85% ROI)
The Chicago Bears have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.75 Units / 18% ROI)
The Chicago Bears have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 17 games (+3.20 Units / 16% ROI)
The Chicago Bears have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.95 Units / 16% ROI)

49ers Best Bets:

The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+7.75 Units / 32% ROI)
The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.63 Units / 32% ROI)
The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 22 games (+2.60 Units / 10% ROI)
The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 22 games (+2.55 Units / 10% ROI)
The San Francisco 49ers have covered the 1Q Spread in 12 of their last 22 games (+2.50 Units / 10% ROI)

Bears Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bears art 6-4 (+1.6 Units / 12.08% ROI).

Bears are 4-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.85 Units / -35.03% ROI
Bears are 4-8 when betting the Over for -4.8 Units / -36.36% ROI
Bears are 8-4 when betting the Under for +3.6 Units / ROI

49ers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the 49ers are 4-8 (-4.7 Units / -35.88% ROI).

49ers are 5-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.25 Units / -31.57% ROI
49ers are 6-6 when betting the Over for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI
49ers are 6-6 when betting the Under for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI

Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the San Francisco 49ers

The Bears are 2-10 (.167) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The 49ers have intercepted 33 passes since the 2023 season — most in NFL.

The Bears are winless (0-5) on the road this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Bears are winless (0-4) when not forcing a fumble this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .432.

The Bears were 1-8 (.111) when throwing at least 1 interception last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .371.

San Francisco 49ers: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears

The 49ers were winless (0-3) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The 49ers are 3-9 (.250) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season — T-8th-worst in NFL. The Bears have intercepted 31 passes since the 2023 season — T-2nd-most in NFL.

The 49ers are winless (0-5) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .439.

The 49ers were winless (0-5) when scoring less than 22 points last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .253.

Additional Matchup Notes for Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers have run 19.2% offensive plays in the red zone this season — best in NFL. The Bears have allowed their opponent to run 17.6% of plays in the red zone this season — T-3rd-worst in NFL.

49ers RBs have rushed for 10 or more yards on 13.7% of 256 carries this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Bears have allowed 10+ yards on 13.6% of carries to RBs this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

49ers RBs have rushed for 10 or more yards on 13.9% of 653 carries since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Bears have allowed 10+ yards on 11.9% of carries to RBs since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Bears have averaged just -0.47 epa per play against a light rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL. The 49ers have allowed just -0.42 epa per play with a light rush since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Bears have run successful plays on just 39.2% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The 49ers have allowed successful plays on just 41.8% of pass attempts on their own side of the field this season — T-4th-best in NFL.

The Bears have run successful plays on just 32.6% of pass attempts against a light rush since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The 49ers have allowed successful plays on just 27.3% of pass attempts with a light rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL.

Chicago Bears Offense: Important Stats

The Bears averaged -0.76 epa per play against a light rush last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.

The Bears ran no plays in their opponent’s territory in the 1st half in Week 13 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

The Bears have run successful plays on 43% of plays on first read passes this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 51%.

The Bears ran successful plays on 17% of plays against a light rush last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

San Francisco 49ers Offense: Important Stats

The 49ers ran successful plays on 53% of rush attempts against a base front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The 49ers ran successful plays on 51% of plays last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The 49ers completed passes for 20+ yards on 75 of their 491 total passing attempts (15%) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 9%.

The 49ers averaged 0.16 epa per play on the road last season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.

Chicago Bears Defense: Important Stats

The Bears defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 76% on 3rd and short last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 59%.

The Bears defense allowed first downs on 76% of plays on 3rd and short last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 59%.

The Bears defense allowed successful plays on 41% of pass attempts against play action passes last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 51%.

The Bears defense allowed 58.8 receiving yards per game (1,000/17) to RBs last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 32.4.

San Francisco 49ers Defense: Important Stats

The 49ers defense allowed successful plays on 14% of pass attempts with a light rush last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The 49ers defense has allowed successful plays on 41% of plays against play action passes since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The 49ers defense allowed successful plays on 10% of plays with a light rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The 49ers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 80.8 with a base rush (904 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.2.

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