- The Lions are -10 point favorites vs the Bears
- Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The Chicago Bears (4-7-0) visit Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions (10-1-0) on Nov. 28. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:30pm EST in Detroit, MI.
The Lions are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -10 (-115).
The Bears vs. Lions Over/Under is 48.5 total points for the game.
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Bears vs. Lions Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Bears | +10 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +400 |
| Lions | -10 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -550 |
Bears vs. Lions Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Lions will win this game with 80.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Bears vs Lions Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bears will cover the spread with 64.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bears players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Bears Player Prop Bets Today
- Cole Kmet has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.80 Units / 45% ROI)
- Cole Kmet has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- Caleb Williams has hit the Interceptions Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.20 Units / 69% ROI)
- D’Andre Swift has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- Rome Odunze has hit the Receptions Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 65% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Lions players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Lions Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jared Goff has hit the Passing Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+5.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Longest Reception Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.45 Units / 51% ROI)
- David Montgomery has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+5.40 Units / 27% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Lions vs Bears
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| David Montgomery (Det) | +375 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (Det) | +375 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (Det) | +600 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Lions vs Bears
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 19.5 -110 | 19.5 -120 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) | 70.5 -115 | 70.5 -115 |
| Cole Kmet (CHI) | 36.5 -110 | 36.5 -120 |
| D.J. Moore (CHI) | 53.5 -110 | 53.5 -120 |
| Keenan Allen (CHI) | 49.5 -115 | 49.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Lions vs Bears
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff (DET) | 1.5 -110 | 1.5 -120 |
| D’Andre Swift (CHI) | 45.5 -120 | 45.5 -110 |
Bears Best Bets:
- The Chicago Bears have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 21 games (+6.55 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have scored first in their last 6 games (+6.30 Units / 90% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 17 games (+4.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 9 away games (+3.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 20 games (+2.65 Units / 12% ROI)
Lions Best Bets:
- The Detroit Lions have covered the Spread in 18 of their last 21 games (+14.65 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 21 games (+13.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have covered the 1H Spread in 17 of their last 21 games (+12.35 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.15 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have hit the 1H Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+9.45 Units / 23% ROI)
Bears Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bears art 5-4 (+0.6 Units / 4.94% ROI).
- Bears are 4-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.85 Units / -30.89% ROI
- Bears are 4-7 when betting the Over for -3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI
- Bears are 7-4 when betting the Under for +2.6 Units / ROI
Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Lions are 9-2 (+6.8 Units / 56.67% ROI).
- Lions are 10-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.45 Units / 17.87% ROI
- Lions are 5-5 when betting the Over for -0.55 Units / -4.53% ROI
- Lions are 5-5 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / -4.15% ROI
Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions
The Bears are winless (0-4) on the road this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Bears are 2-10 (.167) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Lions have intercepted 30 passes since the 2023 season — T-4th-most in NFL.
The Bears are 1-6 (.143) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Bears are winless (0-4) when allowing 250 or more passing yards this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .409.
Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears
The Lions are 4-2 (.667) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .267.
The Lions are undefeated (3-0) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .248.
The Lions are undefeated (9-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .579.
The Lions were undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .574.
Additional Matchup Notes for Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
The Lions have run successful plays on just 42.9% of rush attempts against a base rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Bears have allowed successful plays on just 45.5% of rush attempts with a base rush since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL.
Lions RBs have rushed for 10 or more yards on 12.5% of 766 carries since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Bears have allowed 10+ yards on 11.5% of carries to RBs since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL.
Lions QBs have been 53 sacked since the 2023 season — 3rd-fewest in NFL. The Bears have sacked the quarterback 58 times since the 2023 season — 3rd-fewest in NFL.
The Bears have 11 touchdown passes this season — T-2nd-fewest in NFL. The Lions have allowed 7 passing TDs this season — fewest in NFL.
Bears RBs have averaged just 76.0 rushing yards per game this season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Lions have allowed an average of just 95.2 rushing yards per game this season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Bears have a third down conversion rate of just 32.3% this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Lions defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 29.8% this season — best in NFL.
Chicago Bears Offense: Important Stats
The Bears averaged -0.76 epa per play against a light rush last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.
The Bears have run 3% of their plays in the red zone in the 1st quarter this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
The Bears have averaged -0.51 epa per play against a light rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.02.
The Bears ran successful plays on 17% of plays against a light rush last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
Detroit Lions Offense: Important Stats
The Lions went for it on fourth down 35% of the time last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 20%.
The Lions had a third down conversion rate of 44% against tight coverage last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.
The Lions have run successful plays on 58% of pass attempts against a base front this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Lions have a third down conversion rate of 37% against tight coverage since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 20%.
Chicago Bears Defense: Important Stats
The Bears defense allowed -0.17 epa per play with a stacked front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.
The Bears defense averaged a sack every 21.6 pass attempts (647 Pass Attempts/30 Sacks) last season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 14.0.
The Bears defense allowed successful plays on 41% of pass attempts against play action passes last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 51%.
The Bears defense allowed 58.8 receiving yards per game (1,000/17) to RBs last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 32.4.
Detroit Lions Defense: Important Stats
The Lions defense allowed a Completion Pct of just 39% (11 completions/28 attempts) in Week 12 — best in NFL; League Avg: 65%.
The Lions defense has allowed a passer rating of just 49.0 in the red zone (46 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 94.3.
The Lions defense has allowed a passer rating of just 72.7 (396 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 91.9.
The Lions’ opponents have averaged 56.6 Passing Attempts per TD (396 Pass Attempts/7 Passing TDs) this season — best Pass Attempts Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 23.2.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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