- The Packers are -10 point favorites vs the Bears
- Total (Over/Under): 41 points
- Watch this game on FOX
The Chicago Bears (4-12-0) visit Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers (11-5-0) on Jan. 5. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Green Bay, WI.
The Packers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -10 (-110).
The Bears vs. Packers Over/Under is 41 total points for the game.
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Bears vs. Packers Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Bears | +10 -110 | 41 -110 | +375 |
| Packers | -10 -110 | 41 -110 | -500 |
Bears vs. Packers Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Packers will win this game with 87.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Bears vs Packers Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bears will cover the spread with 52.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bears players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Bears Player Prop Bets Today
- Caleb Williams has hit the Interceptions Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.30 Units / 66% ROI)
- Roschon Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 67% ROI)
- Caleb Williams has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- Gerald Everett has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Roschon Johnson has hit the Receptions Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.90 Units / 66% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Packers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Packers Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Jordan Love has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.75 Units / 63% ROI)
- Jordan Love has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- Emanuel Wilson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Luke Musgrave has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 86% ROI)
- Josh Jacobs has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.80 Units / 58% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Packers vs Bears
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Cole Kmet (CHI) | 12.5 -120 | 12.5 -110 |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 12.5 -110 | 12.5 -120 |
| D.J. Moore (CHI) | 56.5 -115 | 56.5 -115 |
| Keenan Allen (CHI) | 53.5 -115 | 53.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Packers vs Bears
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 64.5 -120 | 64.5 -110 |
| D’Andre Swift (CHI) | 45.5 -120 | 45.5 -110 |
Bears Best Bets:
- The Chicago Bears have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+5.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have covered the Spread in 11 of their last 21 games (+2.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have covered the 2H Spread in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.55 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 17 games (+0.40 Units / 2% ROI)
Packers Best Bets:
- The Green Bay Packers have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 14 games (+10.18 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games (+9.19 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+9.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have covered the 1Q Spread in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.90 Units / 20% ROI)
Bears Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bears art 7-7 (-0.8 Units / -4.51% ROI).
- Bears are 4-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.85 Units / -47.58% ROI
- Bears are 6-10 when betting the Over for -5 Units / -28.41% ROI
- Bears are 10-6 when betting the Under for +3.4 Units / ROI
Packers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Packers are 8-7 (+0.25 Units / 1.43% ROI).
- Packers are 11-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.05 Units / 18.22% ROI
- Packers are 7-8 when betting the Over for -1.8 Units / -10.23% ROI
- Packers are 8-7 when betting the Under for +0.3 Units / 1.7% ROI
Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the Green Bay Packers
The Bears are winless (0-7) when intercepting no passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .378.
The Bears were winless (0-7) when allowing 22 or more points last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .223.
The Bears are winless (0-7) when not forcing a fumble this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .413.
The Bears are 2-14 (.125) on the road since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .459.
Green Bay Packers: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears
The Packers are 2-1 (.667) when not forcing a turnover this season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .284.
The Packers were 5-8 (.385) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season — 10th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .464.
The Packers are 6-3 (.667) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — 10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .606.
The Packers are 3-2 (.600) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter this season — 9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
Additional Matchup Notes for Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
The Packers have been successful on 49.3% of plays they have run against a light front this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Bears have allowed their opponents to be successful on 44.4% of plays with a light front this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Packers have scored on 45% of their drives in the first quarter this season — T-2nd-best in NFL. The Bears defense has allowed scores on 43.2% of opponent drives in the first quarter this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL.
The Packers have run successful plays on 53.4% of pass attempts against a light front this season — best in NFL. The Bears have allowed successful plays on 47.9% of pass attempts with a light front this season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Bears have scored on 9.8% of their drives in the first quarter this season — worst in NFL. The Packers defense has allowed scores on 16.7% of opponent drives in the first quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL.
The Bears are averaging just 3.6 yards per carry this season — T-worst in NFL. The Packers have allowed just 4.2 yards per carry this season — T-4th-best in NFL.
The Bears are averaging just 3.5 yards per carry on rushes up the middle this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL. The Packers have allowed just 3.2 yards per carry when defending rushes up the middle this season — 2nd-best in NFL.
Chicago Bears Offense: Important Stats
The Bears averaged -0.76 epa per play against a light rush last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.
The Bears have averaged just 3.3 yards per play on first drive of the game this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.
The Bears have run 2% of their plays in the red zone in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 13%.
The Bears have averaged -0.12 epa per play against tight coverage this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.43.
Green Bay Packers Offense: Important Stats
The Packers have averaged 8.4 yards per play against a light front this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 6.4.
The Packers did not target running backs on 0 pass attempts in Week 17 — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 13%.
The Packers scored on 50% of their drives in the 3rd quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 29%.
The Packers had a third down conversion rate of 88% against a heavy rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 33%.
Chicago Bears Defense: Important Stats
The Bears defense allowed -0.17 epa per play with a stacked front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.
The Bears defense allowed 58.8 receiving yards per game (1,000/17) to RBs last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 32.4.
The Bears defense have allowed 9.4 yards per play against play action passes this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.6.
The Bears defense has allowed 46.8 receiving yards per game (1,544/33) to RBs since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 32.6.
Green Bay Packers Defense: Important Stats
The Packers defense tackled opponents for a loss on 10 of 23 rushing attempts (43% TFL%) in Week 17. — best in NFL; League Avg: 13%.
The Packers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 35.2 on 3rd and long (71 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 82.6.
The Packers defense have allowed -0.64 epa per play when the opposing QB has scrambled since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.29.
The Packers defense has allowed passes of 40+ yards on just 1 of 535 attempts (0%) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 1%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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