- The Bears are a 5.5-point home underdog against the Packers.
- The Packers have won each of their last 14 games against the Bears following a loss.
- My Bears vs. Packers prediction is to use the Packers in a teaser.
The Bears will look to avoid a fourth straight defeat in Week 11 when they face the Packers at home in a divisional matchup.
Chicago fell 19-3 to New England as massive home favorites in Week 10. That marked the second consecutive week Chicago’s offense failed to score a touchdown.
Now Chicago plays Green Bay, which saw a four-game winning streak snapped in Week 9 against Detroit. After a Week 10 bye, the Packers look for a first division win.
Bet on Bears vs. Packers and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 11 Odds: Bears vs. Packers
2024-12-06T01:15:00ZPackers at Lions
Bears vs. Packers Prediction
Based on Green Bay’s edge via the rush and teams’ historical performances off a bye, my Bears vs. Packers prediction is to tease the Packers (-0.5).
I’m keeping this handicap simple: Green Bay excels at rushing the ball, and Chicago cannot stop the run.
The Packers rank third in rush offense DVOA and fourth in yards per rush attempt. Comparatively, the Bears are 30th and 29th in the corresponding defensive categories.
Even more concerning for Chicago? That record comes against a fairly easy set of opposing run offenses.
The Bears have played only two games against teams currently 10th or better in rush offense DVOA. They’re 0-2 SU in such contests, with a caveat that one loss came at Washington.
Chicago’s offense is simultaneously horrible. Shane Waldron’s unit sits 30th in offensive DVOA despite playing the second-easiest set of opposing defenses.
Green Bay’s defense is much more battle tested. They’re 12th in defensive DVOA after playing the 11th-hardest schedule of opposing offenses, per ftnfantasy.com.
History also suggests this is a good spot to buy Green Bay.
Conference favorites priced between -17 and -4.5 with 14-15 days between games are 78-16 SU (83%) since 2003, assuming the opponent has 6-8 days between games.
When those teams play away from home: 16-3 SU.
As a result, tease the Packers down through three key numbers on Sunday. For a teaser pairing, use the Chiefs (+8.5) from my Bills vs. Chiefs prediction.
Bears vs. Packers: NFL Public Betting Trends
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | 83% | 85% | 52% | 56% |
| Bears | 17% | 15% | 48% | 44% |
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