- The Bears are a 6.5-point home favorite against the Patriots.
- The home team has won each of the Bears' last 13 games.
- My Bears vs. Patriots prediction is for the Patriots to cover the spread.
Looking to end a two-game losing streak, the Bears return home to face the New England Patriots.
Chicago, following a dramatic defeat in Washington, tailed it with a horrible performance in Arizona. As slight road dogs, the Bears fell 29-9 in Arizona.
New England is 2-7 after an overtime loss in Tennessee last week. The Patriots have covered two consecutive games, which is good news for New England.
Bet on Bears vs. Patriots and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 10 Odds: Bears vs. Patriots
Bears vs. Patriots Prediction
Based on Chicago’s inability to stop the run and New England’s strong rushing attack, my Bears vs. Patriots prediction is the Patriots Spread (+6.5, -110).
It might just be the case that the Bears are the best favorite in the league. Caleb Williams, in four starts as a market favorite this year, is 4-0 ATS with two wins by two or more touchdowns.
But the fact remains this is a terrible Chicago run defense taking on a good Patriots ground game.
To date, Chicago sits 28th in rushing yards per attempt (5.0). On Sunday, they get a New England team 14th in the corresponding offensive category (4.4).
That’s simply a recipe for disaster for a big favorite, which history backs up.
Home favorites between -13.5 and -5.5 in games 2-11, allowing more than four yards per rush attempt, are 41% ATS since 2003.
When those favorites allow more than 4.4 yards per attempt: 54-88-1 ATS (38%), including 5-12 ATS against teams that average north of 4.4 yards per attempt.
But the biggest head-scratcher about this game? The market perception of the Patriots compared to the Panthers.
Chicago closed at only -4 at home against Carolina. Although they won by 26, are we actually about to say New England is 2.5 points worse than the Panthers?
New England’s offense just moved the ball quite effectively against Tennessee and has stayed within this number each of the last two games.
As a result, it’s New England or nothing for me on Sunday in Chicago.
Bears vs. Patriots: NFL Public Betting Trends
Check back on Friday for Patriots vs. Bears public betting data and insights.
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