Bengals vs Chargers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 11

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Rice player number 10 about to throw a NFL game ball with Rice players number 25 and 13 running in the background.

(AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 17, 2024, 9:48 AM

The Chargers are -1.5 point favorites vs the Bengals
Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
Watch this game on NBC | UNIV | TELX

The Cincinnati Bengals (4-6-0) visit SoFi Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Chargers (6-3-0) on Nov. 17. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EST in Inglewood, CA.

The Chargers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Bengals vs. Chargers Over/Under is 47.5 total points for the game.

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Bengals vs. Chargers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Bengals	+1.5 -110	47.5 -110	+105
Chargers	-1.5 -110	47.5 -110	-125

Bengals vs. Chargers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Bengals will win this game with 61.9% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Bengals vs Chargers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chargers will cover the spread with 58.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bengals players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bengals Player Prop Bets Today

Zack Moss has hit the Carries Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.70 Units / 61% ROI)
Zack Moss has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.20 Units / 50% ROI)
Andrei Iosivas has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+5.65 Units / 36% ROI)
Zack Moss has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.45 Units / 35% ROI)
Jake Browning has hit the TD Passes Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+4.25 Units / 45% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chargers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Chargers Player Prop Best Bets Today

Will Dissly has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.75 Units / 55% ROI)
D.J. Chark has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Justin Herbert has hit the Completions Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.05 Units / 36% ROI)
Josh Palmer has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.70 Units / 49% ROI)
Will Dissly has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+5.35 Units / 39% ROI)

Bengals Best Bets:

The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 15 of their last 18 games (+11.60 Units / 54% ROI)
The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.25 Units / 27% ROI)
The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 away games (+5.55 Units / 43% ROI)
The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.40 Units / 22% ROI)
The Cincinnati Bengals have scored first in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.05 Units / 45% ROI)

Chargers Best Bets:

The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.55 Units / 41% ROI)
The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.05 Units / 20% ROI)
The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 8 games at home (+2.50 Units / 23% ROI)
The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+1.95 Units / 18% ROI)
The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 20 games (+0.30 Units / 1% ROI)

Bengals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bengals art 6-4 (+1.8 Units / 16.67% ROI).

Bengals are 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.65 Units / -34.38% ROI
Bengals are 7-3 when betting the Over for +3.65 Units / 33.03% ROI
Bengals are 3-7 when betting the Under for -4.7 Units / ROI

Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers are 6-2 (+3.8 Units / 38.38% ROI).

Chargers are 6-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.8 Units / 16.23% ROI
Chargers are 2-7 when betting the Over for -5.7 Units / -57.58% ROI
Chargers are 7-2 when betting the Under for +4.8 Units / 48.48% ROI

Cincinnati Bengals: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers

The Bengals are winless (0-4) when committing 2 or more turnovers since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .295.

The Bengals are 1-4 (.200) at home this season — T-3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .510.

The Bengals were undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than 100 rushing yards last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .664.

Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals

The Chargers are winless (0-8) when within 3 points at the two minute warning since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

Additional Matchup Notes for Cincinnati Bengals vs. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers ran 30.9% offensive plays in the red zone last week — best in NFL. The Bengals allowed their opponent to run 22.8% of plays in the red zone last week — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Chargers were successful on 57.1% of plays they ran against a base rush last week — 2nd-best in NFL. The Bengals allowed their opponents to be successful on 50.0% of plays with a base rush last week — T-3rd-worst in NFL.

The Chargers have run successful plays on just 16.7% of rush attempts against a light front this season — T-worst in NFL. The Bengals have allowed successful plays on just 30.8% of rush attempts with a light front this season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Bengals have run successful plays on 43.4% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Chargers have pressured opposing QBs on just 20.3% of passing plays this season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Bengals have been successful on 55.4% of plays they have ran against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Chargers have allowed their opponents to be successful on 53.3% of plays with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.

The Bengals have run successful plays on 55.1% of pass attempts against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Chargers have allowed successful plays on 65.2% of pass attempts with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.

Cincinnati Bengals Offense: Important Stats

The Bengals averaged -0.85 epa per play against tight coverage last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.52.

The Bengals threw for 4 TDs in Week 10 — T-most in NFL.

The Bengals have thrown 2.4 TD passes per game (24/10) this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 1.4.

The Bengals have thrown for 24 TDs this season — T-most in NFL.

Los Angeles Chargers Offense: Important Stats

The Chargers have thrown the ball 17% of the time (5 Pass Attempts/29 plays) on 3rd and short this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Chargers started 21 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — T-2nd-most in NFL.

The Chargers have run successful plays on 28% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Chargers have gone three and out on 32% of their drives this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

Cincinnati Bengals Defense: Important Stats

The Bengals defense has allowed successful plays on 49% of plays on motion plays since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Bengals defense allowed 4 TD passes in Week 10 — T-most in NFL.

The Bengals defense has allowed successful plays on 72% of rush attempts with a stacked front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Bengals defense allowed 8 TDs on first drive of the game last season — most in NFL.

Los Angeles Chargers Defense: Important Stats

The Chargers defense has allowed successful plays on 19% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 51%.

Only 8% of the plays run against the Chargers have been in the red zone this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Chargers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 45.8 with a stacked front (16 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 110.1.

The Chargers defense has sacked opposing QBs on 55% of pass attempts (31/56) when they have pressured the QB this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 32%.

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