- The Bengals are a 3-point home favorite against the Steelers.
- The Steelers have won each of their last five Sunday games as underdogs.
- My Bengals vs. Steelers prediction focuses on the over/under.
For the third straight week, the Steelers face a divisional matchup. This time, it’s a trip to Cincinnati to face the Bengals.
As road favorites against Cleveland, the Steelers fell 24-19. Still, Pittsburgh holds the lead in the loss column over the Ravens for the AFC North division lead.
Cincinnati’s Week 11 bye came at a perfect time for the Bengals, losers of two straight and three of their previous four. This season, Cincinnati is 1-2 SU in division play.
Bet on Bengals vs. Steelers and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 13 Odds: Bengals vs. Steelers
Bengals vs. Steelers Prediction
Based on Pittsburgh’s strong defensive record and the extra rest for both teams, my Bengals vs. Steelers prediction is Under 47 Points (-110).
Pittsburgh’s result two weeks ago against Baltimore proved to me that, no matter how bad a team’s defensive record appears, they’ll step up in divisional games.
That’s what I’m banking on in this game, as Cincinnati’s defense has looked suspect at best. Entering Week 12, Zac Taylor’s defense ranks 26th in defensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.
The good news for Cincinnati? That record has come against the 10th-hardest set of opposing offenses.
Pittsburgh’s offense should represent a reprieve for the Bengals. Across the entire season, Pittsburgh ranks 22nd in offensive DVOA.
Additionally, the Steelers have recorded that record against bad defenses. To date, they’ve faced the seventh-easiest set of opposing defenses.
Since Russell Wilson took over in Week 7, the Steelers rank 30th in offensive success rate, including 29th on early downs.
With the Bengals receiving extra time to prepare, I’m confident they’ll shut down Pittsburgh’s offense.
That said, I question how the Bengals accomplish a lot offensively.
Not since Week 8 against the Eagles have the Bengals faced a legitimately good defense that has tested itself against good offenses.
The result? A dismal 17-point showing for the Bengals.
Although the Bengals rank sixth in offensive DVOA, it has come against the fourth-easiest set of opposing defenses.
History also likes this game finishing under the total.
Since 2021, games with a total between 40.5 and 49 are 67% to the under, assuming the road team has 10 or more days between games.
When the home team has eight or more days between games: 35-6 to the under, including 7-1 when the total closes between 46 and 49.
Betting Bengals vs. Steelers: NFL Public Betting
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | 72% | 65% | 83% | 78% |
| Bengals | 28% | 35% | 17% | 22% |
