Best Favorite Teams in NFL Betting

min read
Philadelphia Eagles running back Boston Scott (35) runs with the ball during the NFC Championship NFL football game against the San Francisco 49ers, Sunday, Jan. 29, 2023, in Philadelphia.
(AP Photo/Chris Szagola)
Chase Kiddy @chaseakiddy Jul 20, 2023, 4:24 PM

The San Francisco 49ers were far and away the best-covering favorite in NFL betting during the 2022 season. They were 12-5 as the favorite.

The Eagles, who were the next-best team by raw wins, were 10-9. The Bengals were 9-5.ย 

A series of quarterback injuries depressed the marketโ€™s willingness to bet on the 49ers throughout the year. Just as the 49ers were gaining steam in the middle portion of the season, they had to turn to third-string quarterback Brock Purdy.

Purdy proved to be an effective offensive executor for Kyle Shanahanโ€™s offense, but it took bettors weeks to realize that. His emergence basically reset the NFL betting market on San Francisco in the middle of the season, leading to weeks of undercooked point spreads.ย 

Over and over again, 49ers bettors cashed in big.

NFL ATS Records as Favorites

TeamATS Record as Favorite, 2022ATS Record as Favorite, 2018-22
Arizona1-29-18
Atlanta2-312-21
Baltimore4-827-36-1
Buffalo8-9-129-24-3
Carolina0-49-21
Chicago0-1-116-16-1
Cincinnati9-518-14
Cleveland3-414-25-1
Dallas8-529-27
Denver1-710-20-1
Detroit3-28-9
Green Bay4-733-29
Houston0-09-17-2
Indianapolis1-622-23-1
Jacksonville1-45-14
Kansas City6-10-140-41-3
LA Chargers6-5-121-28-3
LA Rams2-431-30-3
Las Vegas4-610-19
Miami5-516-12
Minnesota6-6-125-24-2
New England5-2-134-27-2
New Orleans2-429-28
NY Giants3-27-8-1
NY Jets2-35-10
Philadelphia10-923-29-2
Pittsburgh4-217-25-2
San Francisco12-527-28-1
Seattle1-520-27-2
Tampa Bay4-9-124-32-2
Tennessee4-319-23-1
Washington4-38-11

Best Favorite Teams in NFL Betting (Last Five Years)

Kansas City has covered the most (40) games as a favorite over the last five years, but thatโ€™s mainly a function of the raw number of games the Chiefs play as a favorite. They have an NFL ATS record of 40-41-3 as a favorite over the last five seasons.

The team thatโ€™s covered the best percentage as a favorite is actually New England, thanks largely to the fact that the last five years included two seasons of Tom Brady.

But even now, Bill Belichick is still a pretty good investment as a favorite โ€“ the Pats were 5-2-1 ATS when laying points in 2022.ย 

Other teams that were above water when laying points from 2018-22 include the Bills, Bengals, Cowboys, Packers, Rams, Dolphins, Vikings, and Saints.ย 

NFL Betting Market Suppress Even the Best Teams

Brock Purdy and the 49ers may have fooled the market for a large portion of 2022, but itโ€™s virtually impossible for teams to consistently beat the market to that degree over multiple seasons.ย 

San Francisco โ€“ good enough to go to three NFC championship games in the last four years โ€“ is just 27-28-1 ATS as a favorite over the last five seasons.

Thatโ€™s because betting markets suppress the value of even the best teams. An online sportsbook takes action on public teams, so they may add a point or two onto a number to insulate itself against a deluge of public action; public bettors then bet it anyway, driving up the spread even higher.ย 

Thereโ€™s also the very format of the NFL itself, which rewards bad teams and penalizes good ones by design via its annual draft process.

As a result, many of the top teams in the NFL level out with ATS records very close to .500. The Chiefs, as I mentioned, are one game below .500 in this ATS favorite category.

The Rams, who won a Super Bowl at the end of the 2021 season and had been excellent under Sean McVay for years before that, are 31-30-3 as an ATS favorite over the last five seasons.

The Cowboys โ€“ always a target for public bets โ€“ are 29-27.ย 

None of this means you shouldnโ€™t bet on popular or trendy favorites. But if youโ€™re doing it a lot, it can be difficult to find a long-term edge.

Read More: How Often Do Favorites Win in NFL Betting?ย 

NFL Online Sports Betting

BetMGM is the premier online sports betting destination for NFL odds each year.

From offseason futures betting like Super Bowl odds or NFL MVP odds to in-season betting on spreads, over/under totals, and player props, there are thousands of betting opportunities regardless of your football knowledge and betting expertise.

If you don’t have an account, register today with BetMGM’s welcome offer. Once you have an account, check for daily sports betting promos.

jamie-foxx-latest-promo-9-24
About the Author

Chase Kiddy

Read More @chaseakiddy

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.