NFL Picks: Week 7 Predictions & Odds

Below are my NFL picks for Week 7 for the 2024-25 NFL regular season. 

Get the full list of NFL betting lines at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

NFL Picks: Week 7 Predictions

Colts vs. Dolphins Prediction

Based on the tendencies of the Colts offense and Miami’s sneaky good defensive record, my Colts vs. Dolphins prediction is the Dolphins Spread (+3.5, -110). 

I’m not sure bettors are giving the Dolphins defense the credit it deserves. 

Miami has experienced its fair share of struggles, but it has mostly come against strong rushing outfits. 

All three of Miami’s losses this season came against teams 10th or better in PFF’s rushing grades. Currently, the Colts are 30th in that category. 

Some of that can be attributed to Jonathan Taylor’s absence, but this is simultaneously a terrible matchup for the Colts passing game. 

Per NFL.com, the Colts are third in success pass plays over 20 yards and first in successful plays over 40 yards. 

The issue? They’re encountering a Miami defense that has surrendered only 10 pass plays over 20 yards this season. 

Miami’s offense, which has looked anemic to start the year, also could get DeVon Achane back from a concussion in Week 7. 

That gives Miami, with extra time to prepare, the better skill group in my estimation. 

Miami also matches a historically profitable betting system in this spot. 

Road dogs priced between +1.5 and +6 in games 2-9 are 64.7% ATS, assuming two factors:

• The opposing team missed the postseason the previous year
• The dog’s spread change from open to close falls between +1 and +5.5

When those dogs fall between +1.5 and +3.5, they improve to 71% ATS. 

Take the Dolphins at +3 or better in Week 7 off extended rest.

Steelers vs. Jets Prediction, SNF

Due to the strength of both defenses and historically profitable total trends, my Steelers vs. Jets prediction is the pregame Total Under 38 Points (-110). 

While Pittsburgh’s defense looked shaky at times in Las Vegas, reinforcements appear to be on the way. 

Reports suggest Alex Highsmith could return from injury for this contest. If he does, it suddenly takes a lot of pressure off T.J. Watt. 

Through Week 6, Pittsburgh sits fifth in defensive EPA per play. In Week 7, they get a Jets offense currently 22nd in the corresponding offensive category. 

Even if New York’s offense improves against Buffalo, they’ll face a road game on short rest against a defense superior to its Week 6 opponents. 

This game simultaneously offers a chance to sell the Steelers offense. 

Pittsburgh goes from facing a team 20th in defensive EPA per play to a team that’s 11th in that metric. 

Mike Tomlin’s squad also benefited A LOT from mistakes by Aidan O’Connell in Week 6. Six of Pittsburgh’s seven scoring drives started in Vegas territory because of turnovers. 

Against a more experienced quarterback, Pittsburgh should see some negative regression. 

Finally, outdoor games with a total between 32.5 and 38 are 49-24-1 (67%) to the under since 2019. When the Steelers are involved in that game, it’s 12-3 to the under. 

NFL Live Betting Predictions

Atlanta Falcons Prediction: Make or Miss the Playoffs

Based on the Falcons’ Week 1 result, I predict the Falcons Miss the Playoffs (+105). 

I’m treating this bet more as an arbitrage opportunity. 

It’s my opinion all four NFC South teams are going to lose in Week 2. None of the four division occupants are shorter than +200 on the moneyline. 

That makes Week 3 critical for which team is, in my opinion, going to be the sole representative in the playoffs.  

In Week 3, New Orleans hosts Philadelphia, Tampa Bay hosts Denver, Carolina visits Las Vegas and Atlanta hosts Kansas City. 

Even worse? Atlanta has to play Kansas City at a rest disadvantage. 

Per Sharp Football Analysis, Kansas City finished 13-2 SU last season when they didn’t play with a rest disadvantage of two or more days. 

If results go as I anticipate, Atlanta could close an underdog to make the playoffs following Week 3. 

The good news? Atlanta’s final 14 games see them play only one team with a preseason win total higher than nine wins. 

That makes this a good arbitrage opportunity on Atlanta.