- The Chiefs are -2 point favorites vs the Bills
- Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
- Watch this game on CBS | PAR+
The Buffalo Bills visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs on Jan. 26. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30pm EST in Kansas City, MO, USA.
The Chiefs are betting favorites in this AFC Championship matchup, with the spread sitting at -2 (-105).
The Bills vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 47.5 total points for the game.
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Bills vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Bills | +2 -115 | 47.5 -110 | +110 |
| Chiefs | -2 -105 | 47.5 -110 | -130 |
Bills vs. Chiefs Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this game with 57.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Bills vs Chiefs Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread with 68.5% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today
- Josh Allen has hit the Interceptions Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.20 Units / 34% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Carries Over in his last 5 away games (+5.15 Units / 87% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 86% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Completions Over in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 88% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Xavier Worthy has hit the Receptions Over in his last 8 games (+8.80 Units / 88% ROI)
- DeAndre Hopkins has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the TD Passes Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+6.35 Units / 65% ROI)
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the Interceptions Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 78% ROI)
- Carson Steele has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 88% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Chiefs vs Bills
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen (Buf) | +700 |
| James Cook (Buf) | +850 |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | +850 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Chiefs vs Bills
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce (KC) | 68.5 -125 | 68.5 -105 |
| Xavier Worthy (KC) | 48.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 12.5 -110 | 12.5 -120 |
| Amari Cooper (BUF) | 16.5 -115 | 16.5 -115 |
| Keon Coleman (BUF) | 18.5 -130 | 18.5 -105 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Chiefs vs Bills
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 25.5 -115 | 25.5 -115 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 54.5 -135 | 54.5 +100 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 48.5 -110 | 48.5 -118 |
| Isiah Pacheco (KC) | 32.5 -110 | 32.5 -118 |
Bills Best Bets:
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.60 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.54 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the Spread in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.40 Units / 28% ROI)
Chiefs Best Bets:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 2Q Spread in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.15 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+6.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 4Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.90 Units / 44% ROI)
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills art 12-7 (+4.4 Units / 21.05% ROI).
- Bills are 15-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.8 Units / 19.54% ROI
- Bills are 11-7 when betting the Over for +3.15 Units / 14.96% ROI
- Bills are 7-11 when betting the Under for -5.1 Units / ROI
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs are 7-10 (-3.85 Units / -19.69% ROI).
- Chiefs are 16-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.2 Units / 27% ROI
- Chiefs are 7-11 when betting the Over for -5.1 Units / -25.76% ROI
- Chiefs are 11-7 when betting the Under for +3.3 Units / 16.67% ROI
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Bills were winless (0-3) when scoring less than 22 points this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .229.
The Bills were 9-1 (.900) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .571.
The Bills were 6-3 (.667) when allowing less than 3 explosive runs this season — T-9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .565.
The Bills were 13-3 (.812) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — 5th-best in NFL; League Avg: .593.
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Chiefs are 14-6 (.700) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .277.
The Chiefs were 4-1 (.800) vs top 10 offenses this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .318.
The Chiefs were undefeated (10-0) when scoring 22 or more points this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .745.
The Chiefs were undefeated (6-0) when forcing at least one fumble this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .621.
Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have run successful plays on 56.7% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Bills have allowed successful plays on 55.2% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL.
The Chiefs had a third down conversion rate of 48.5% this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Bills defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 43.8% this season — T-4th-worst in NFL.
The Chiefs have been successful on 56.0% of plays they have run on play action passes since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Bills have allowed their opponents to be successful on 51.2% of plays on play action passes since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Bills ran successful plays on just 25.3% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Chiefs had pressured opposing QBs on 29.3% of passing plays this season — 4th-best in NFL.
The Bills have run successful plays on 64.5% of rush attempts against a light front since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed successful plays on 53.3% of rush attempts with a light front since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats
The Bills averaged 7.1 yards per play on motion plays this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 5.8.
The Bills averaged 0.26 epa per play on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.
The Bills averaged 0.20 epa per play at home this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.02.
The Bills averaged just 2.3 yards per play against tight coverage this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 3.8.
Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats
The Chiefs converted first downs on just 6 of 38 plays (16%) on plays up the middle in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 32%.
The Chiefs ran successful plays on 57% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Chiefs averaged just 2.2 yards per play against tight coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 3.8.
The Chiefs had a third down conversion rate of 52% in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats
The Bills defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 34% on 3rd and long this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 25%.
The Bills defense allowed just 8.3 yards per play open coverage this season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 9.3.
The Bills defense has allowed scores on 19% of opponent drives in the 3rd quarter since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 31%.
The Bills defense allowed successful plays on 36% of plays in the 3rd quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats
The Chiefs defense allowed first downs on 75% of pass attempts on 3rd and short this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 55%.
The Chiefs defense allowed an average of 1.7 yards after contact per carry (412 carries) this season — T-3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 2.0.
The Chiefs defense allowed an average of 1.7 yards after contact per carry (314 carries) to RBs this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 2.1.
The Chiefs defense allowed 93.7 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 126.8.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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