- The Bills are -1 point favorites vs the Texans
- Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The Buffalo Bills (3-1-0) visit NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans (3-1-0) on Oct. 6. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Houston, TX.
The Bills are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -1 (-110).
The Bills vs. Texans Over/Under is 47.5 total points for the game.
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Bills vs. Texans Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Bills | -1 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -120 |
| Texans | +1 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +100 |
Bills vs. Texans Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this game with 51.2% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Bills vs Texans Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread with 51.2% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today
- Khalil Shakir has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+6.75 Units / 36% ROI)
- Khalil Shakir has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- James Cook has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling has hit the Longest Reception Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 55% ROI)
- Tyler Bass has hit the Field Goals Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+3.70 Units / 15% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Texans players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Texans Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Stefon Diggs has hit the Longest Reception Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.45 Units / 51% ROI)
- Robert Woods has hit the Longest Reception Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.60 Units / 47% ROI)
- C.J. Stroud has hit the Interceptions Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+6.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- Stefon Diggs has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- Dameon Pierce has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.70 Units / 55% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Texans vs Bills
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs (HOU) | 60.5 -115 | 60.5 -115 |
| Nico Collins (HOU) | 78.5 -115 | 78.5 -120 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 18.5 -120 | 18.5 -110 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Texans vs Bills
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| CJ Stroud (HOU) | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 -110 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 30.5 -115 | 30.5 -115 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 57.5 -110 | 57.5 -120 |
Bills Best Bets:
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.30 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 games (+7.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 22 games (+3.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have scored last in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.85 Units / 44% ROI)
Texans Best Bets:
- The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games (+10.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+7.10 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.75 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have covered the 1H Spread in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.05 Units / 20% ROI)
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills art 2-2 (-0.1 Units / -2.33% ROI).
- Bills are 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.2 Units / 30.99% ROI
- Bills are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Bills are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / ROI
Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans are 0-3 (-3.3 Units / -75% ROI).
- Texans are 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.7 Units / 20.73% ROI
- Texans are 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
- Texans are 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans
The Bills are winless (0-5) when rushing for less than 100 yards since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .317.
The Bills were 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.
The Bills were 8-1 (.889) when not losing a fumble last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .578.
The Bills are 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .257.
Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Texans are 3-1 (.750) this season — T-3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Texans were 6-1 (.857) after a loss last season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .488.
The Texans are 8-3 (.727) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season — 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .566.
The Texans are 3-2 (.600) when playing in cold weather since the 2023 season — T-8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans
The Texans had a third down conversion rate of 53.8% last week — T-4th-best in NFL. The Bills defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 55.6% last week — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Texans ran successful plays on 65.5% of pass attempts against a base front last week — 5th-best in NFL. The Bills pressured opposing QBs on 5.9% of pass attempts with a base front last week — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Texans ran successful plays on 63.6% of pass attempts against a base rush last week — 4th-best in NFL. The Bills pressured opposing QBs on 6.7% of pass attempts with a base rush last week — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Bills have a third down conversion rate of 36.4% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Texans defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 33.3% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Bills have averaged 0.17 epa per play against a light front since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Texans have allowed 0.06 epa per play with a light front since the 2023 season — T-4th-worst in NFL.
The Bills have 7 touchdown passes this season — T-4th-most in NFL. The Texans have allowed 8 passing TDs this season — T-3rd-most in NFL.
Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats
The Bills went three and out on 12% of their drives last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.
The Bills ran successful plays on 51% of rush attempts last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Bills ran successful plays on 50% of rush attempts against a base front last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Bills have started 9 drives inside opposing territory this season — most in NFL.
Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats
The Texans ran successful plays on 25% of rush attempts against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Texans had 7 receptions for 20+ yards in Week 4 — T-most in NFL.
The Texans have run successful plays on 29% of plays against a stacked front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Texans ran no plays in their opponent’s territory in the 3rd quarter in Week 4 — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats
The Bills defense have allowed -1.39 epa per play with tight coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.50.
The Bills defense allowed -0.67 epa per play with a light rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.
The Bills defense have allowed -0.25 epa per play first read passes this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.19.
The Bills defense has allowed successful plays on 11% of pass attempts with a light rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats
The Texans defense allowed successful plays on 30% of rush attempts with a stacked front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Texans defense allowed a passer rating of just 64.7 in the red zone (63 Pass Attempts) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 93.0.
The Texans defense allowed successful plays on 26% of rush attempts with a light front last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Texans defense allowed successful plays on 33% of plays with a stacked front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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