Bills vs. Broncos Prediction: NFL Wild Card Odds, Betting Picks

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen warms up before an NFL football game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Monday, Sept. 23, 2024, in Orchard Park, NY. (AP Photo/Adrian Kraus)
(AP Photo/Adrian Kraus)
  • The Bills are a 9-point home favorite against the Broncos.
  • The Bills have won each of their last eight games at Highmark Stadium.
  • My Bills vs. Broncos prediction is for Buffalo to cover the spread.

Sundayโ€™s NFL wild-card action gets underway from Buffalo, with the Bills hosting the Broncos at Highmark Stadium.ย 

The Billsโ€™ Week 18 result proved meaningless after the Chiefs clinched the top overall seed. With starters rested, Buffalo returns home, looking to extend its home winning streak to nine games.ย 

The Broncos clinched the seventh seed in the AFC thanks to a blowout win over the Chiefs in Week 18. Now, Bo Nix will look to end a five-game SU losing streak as underdogs.ย 

Bet on Bills vs. Broncos and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.ย 

NFL Wild Card Odds: Bills vs. Broncos

Jan 12 - 1 pm EST

Broncos at Bills

Bills vs. Broncos Prediction

Based on the recent success of big playoff favorites and the Billsโ€™ outstanding home record, my Bills vs. Broncos prediction is the Bills Spread (-9, -110).ย 

Give Denver their flowers for reaching the playoffs in Nixโ€™s first season. However, he faces a steep climb to win outright and cover the spread.ย 

Nix recorded a 7-0 ATS record as a market favorite this year. Comparatively, heโ€™s 4-5 ATS as a market underdog.

Only once this season has Denver closed north of +8 against the spread. That came in Week 9 against Baltimore, who handed the Broncos a 41-10 loss.ย 

Thereโ€™s an argument to be made that the Buffalo offense lacks the same potency as Baltimore.ย 

Although theyโ€™re separated by only a spot in offensive DVOA, Baltimoreโ€™s rating comes in 12.3% higher, according to ftnfantasy.com.ย 

But the Bills have shown an ability to blow teams out at home. This season, theyโ€™ve covered or pushed this number in five of eight home games.ย 

Itโ€™s also an outstanding sell-high spot on a Broncos defense that has largely faced easy competition this year.ย 

Although Denver ranks fourth in defensive DVOA, that record comes against the 24th-hardest set of opposing offenses, per ftnfantasy.com.ย 

That game against Baltimore is the only occasion this season where Denver has played a top-five offense by DVOA.ย 

Lastly, big home favorites have historically performed well in the playoffs.ย 

Since 2020, home favorites between -11.5 and -8 are 6-2 ATS, including 4-0 ATS in the wild-card round.ย 

As a result, lay the points with the Bills.ย 

Betting Bills vs. Broncos: NFL Public Betting

Check back on Friday for Bills vs. Broncos public betting data and insights.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.