- The Bills are predicted to be -5.5-point favorites against the Jaguars.
- Josh Allen is 20-5 SU as a home favorite of -4 or higher.
- My prediction for Monday’s game is the game total under 45.5 points.
Monday Night Football’s first game of a doubleheader kicks off from Buffalo with the Bills battling the Jaguars.
Buffalo is off to another strong start. They’ve started the season 2-0, including a 31-10 thumping of the Dolphins on Thursday night in Week 2.
Jacksonville, meanwhile, has started 0-2 after losses to the Dolphins and the Browns. In good news, Jacksonville gets a Bills team they beat 25-20 in London last season.
Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines and my Bills vs. Jaguars prediction.
Bills vs. Jaguars Odds
- Buffalo Bills Moneyline: -250
- Jacksonville Jaguars Moneyline: +200
- Game Spread: Buffalo Bills -5.5 (-110)
- Game Over/Under: 45.5 Points
Bills vs. Jaguars Prediction, MNF
My prediction for Bills vs. Jaguars on MNF is the Total Under 45.5 Points (-110).
From a matchup standpoint, my concerns about Jacksonville’s defense are quelled.
Jacksonville is 17th in yards per play through two weeks. However, dive deeper into the splits and bettors will find they’re seventh in yards per rush attempt and 22nd in yards per pass attempt.
On Monday, they’ll get a Bills offense that deploys a run-heavy offensive game plan.
Through two weeks, offensive coordinator Joe Brady has run the ball at the sixth-highest rate.
Buffalo does lead the league in PFF’s rushing grades, but it came against Arizona and Miami. Those fronts aren’t exactly what I would describe as trustworthy.
At the same time, bettors should expect a run-heavy approach from the Jags.
Buffalo is far worse against the run compared to the pass — 15th in yards/rush attempt and fifth in yards per pass attempt.
Plus, I don’t trust Jacksonville’s offensive line — 25th and 29th in pass- and run-blocking grades — against a good Bills front that’s fourth in pressure success rate.
Finally, this game matches a historically profitable system.
Since 2003, conference games with a total between 44 and 57 points are 59.5% to the under when both teams have at least eight days between games.
Since 2019, that system improves to a 66.1% under rate, including 17-7 (71%) when the home team scored 30 or more points in the previous game.
NFL Same Game Parlays
Parlays are a great way to take your NFL betting to the next level. And at BetMGM, you can build parlays with a single game.
Same Game Parlays allow bettors to add multiple bets within the same game to increase the excitement and potential payout. You can also combine Same Game Game Parlays with Same Game Parlay Plus (SGP+)
Check out updated NFL odds today to start building parlays!
Sign in to your account today — or, if you don’t have an account, sign up today with a sportsbook welcome offer — to start betting. And always check your new account for updated sportsbook promos and bonuses.
