- The Bills are predicted to be -5.5-point favorites against the Jaguars.
- Josh Allen is 20-5 SU as a home favorite of -4 or higher.
- My prediction for Monday’s game is the game total under 45.5 points.
Monday Night Football’s first game of a doubleheader kicks off from Buffalo with the Bills battling the Jaguars.
Buffalo is off to another strong start. They’ve started the season 2-0, including a 31-10 thumping of the Dolphins on Thursday night in Week 2.
Jacksonville, meanwhile, has started 0-2 after losses to the Dolphins and the Browns. In good news, Jacksonville gets a Bills team they beat 25-20 in London last season.
Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines and my Bills vs. Jaguars prediction.
Bills vs. Jaguars Odds
- Buffalo Bills Moneyline: -250
- Jacksonville Jaguars Moneyline: +200
- Game Spread: Buffalo Bills -5.5 (-110)
- Game Over/Under: 45.5 Points
Bills vs. Jaguars Prediction, MNF
My prediction for Bills vs. Jaguars on MNF is the Total Under 45.5 Points (-110).
From a matchup standpoint, my concerns about Jacksonville’s defense are quelled.
Jacksonville is 17th in yards per play through two weeks. However, dive deeper into the splits and bettors will find they’re seventh in yards per rush attempt and 22nd in yards per pass attempt.
On Monday, they’ll get a Bills offense that deploys a run-heavy offensive game plan.
Through two weeks, offensive coordinator Joe Brady has run the ball at the sixth-highest rate.
Buffalo does lead the league in PFF’s rushing grades, but it came against Arizona and Miami. Those fronts aren’t exactly what I would describe as trustworthy.
At the same time, bettors should expect a run-heavy approach from the Jags.
Buffalo is far worse against the run compared to the pass — 15th in yards/rush attempt and fifth in yards per pass attempt.
Plus, I don’t trust Jacksonville’s offensive line — 25th and 29th in pass- and run-blocking grades — against a good Bills front that’s fourth in pressure success rate.
Finally, this game matches a historically profitable system.
Since 2003, conference games with a total between 44 and 57 points are 59.5% to the under when both teams have at least eight days between games.
Since 2019, that system improves to a 66.1% under rate, including 17-7 (71%) when the home team scored 30 or more points in the previous game.
In addition to the game total, my second Bills vs. Jaguars prediction is the Jaguars Spread (+5.5, -110).
There’s a definite correlation with the under and the Jaguars covering the spread.
Additionally, as outlined above, the strength of Jacksonville’s defense corresponds well with the Bills’ offensive game plan.
Plus, two systems suggest a bet on the Jaguars.
First, conference road dogs priced between +0.5 and +5.5 are 65% ATS since 2003, including 77% since 2021, assuming two factors:
- The underdog’s game number is between 3 and 9
- The underdog’s previous ATS margin is between -35 and -6
Additionally, history says it’s wise to fade early home favorites that closed as underdogs with a team off a loss as favorites.
Since 2003, road non-divisional dogs in games 2-5 off a loss by no more than 20 points are 64% ATS (95-54-2), when the opponent closed a dog in their last game.
When the opponent is off a win by two or more touchdowns: 16-3 ATS.
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