- The Broncos are a 2.5-point home favorite against the Falcons.
- The Broncos have lost six of their last eight November games as favorites.
- My Broncos vs. Falcons prediction is for Atlanta to cover the spread.
Two teams off narrow division losses meet on Sunday in Denver as the Broncos host the Falcons.
Denver came oh so close to ending Kansas City’s winning streak. However, a blocked field as time expired resigned the Broncos to a second straight defeat.
Atlanta fell 20-17 in New Orleans as road favorites, ending a two-game winning streak. In good news for the Falcons, Raheem Morris’ side has yet to drop consecutive games this season.
Bet on Broncos vs. Falcons and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 11 Odds: Broncos vs. Falcons
Broncos vs. Falcons Prediction
Based on Kirk Cousins’ strong record as an underdog and the Broncos’ ATS streak as a favorite, my Broncos vs. Falcons prediction is the Falcons Spread (+2.5, -110).
The market seems to have reacted favorably to Denver almost beating the Chiefs.
Last I checked, almost only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.
The Broncos have closed a market favorite only three times this season, going 3-0 ATS in those contests. The opponents? Carolina, Las Vegas and New Orleans.
Are we going to lump in the Falcons with that trio, even at +2.5? A reminder: Spencer Rattler and the Saints closed at this exact number against Denver at home.
Cousins is 23-11 ATS as an underdog off a straight up loss, including a Week 2 cover against the Eagles.
There’s also a clear indicator of how Denver earns results. When the Broncos can limit opponents on the ground, they usually win the game.
The Broncos are 4-1 SU this season when holding opponents under 100 rushing yards. When allowing over 100 rushing yards, they fall to 1-4 SU.
Save for Week 9 against Baltimore, this Falcons rushing attack is the best unit Denver will have faced all season.
Atlanta ranks fourth in rush offense DVOA, eighth in rush EPA per play, and first in rush success rate. They’re also third in PFF’s run-blocking grades.
The Falcons also match a historically profitable system in this spot.
Since 2019, it’s wise to fade short home favorites off a loss.
Betting against home favorites priced between -7.5 and -2 off a loss sees bettors win at a 64.6% clip. When the spread falls between -3 and -2, the system improves to 68.4%.
Grab the Falcons to do no worse than a cover on Sunday in Denver.
Broncos vs. Falcons: NFL Public Betting Trends
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | 38% | 40% | 38% | 20% |
| Broncos | 62% | 60% | 62% | 80% |
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