Buccaneers vs. 49ers Prediction: NFL Week 10 Odds, Betting Picks

Off a Week 9 bye, the 49ers travel to Tampa Bay for a meeting with the Buccaneers in Week 10. 

San Francisco has work to do if it hopes to earn another division title. Currently, the 49ers are third in the NFC West and have yet to string together consecutive victories. 

Tampa Bay will operate on short rest after playing on Monday Night Football against the Chiefs. A loss in that contest would be Tampa Bay’s third straight loss after starting 4-2. 

Bet on Buccaneers vs. 49ers and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds. 

NFL Week 10 Odds: Buccaneers vs. 49ers

Buccaneers vs. 49ers Prediction

Based on San Francisco’s rest edge and Tampa Bay’s defensive struggles, my Buccaneers vs. 49ers prediction is the 49ers Spread (-6.5, -110). 

I’m not going to overthink this game. San Francisco has extra rest between games, while the Bucs have to play on short rest. 

That would be a recipe for disaster against any team, but the fact it’s a San Francisco side that could return Christian McCaffrey makes it even worse. 

Even more concerning? Tampa Bay’s defensive outlook is horrifying from an underlying metrics standpoint. 

Not inclusive of Tampa’s Week 9 game against the Chiefs, the Bucs sit 27th in defensive EPA per play and 29th in defensive success rate, per rbsdm.com. 

In fact, only three teams are worse than Tampa Bay in terms of dropback success rate: New England, Green Bay and Arizona. 

Currently, San Francisco ranks eighth in the corresponding offensive category. 

If the 49ers can take an early lead and force Tampa Bay into a negative game script, it forces the Bucs to take on the strength of San Francisco’s defense. 

Through nine weeks, the 49ers sit 11th in dropback EPA per play compared to 23rd in rushing EPA per play. 

In terms of success rate, San Francisco ranks 12th in passing success rate compared to 21st in rushing success rate. 

San Francisco also matches a historically profitable system in this spot. 

Road favorites at -7 or shorter with 14 or more days between games in contests 4-12 are 65% ATS since 2003, including 67% when the opponent has eight or fewer days between games. 

When those favorites fall between -7 and -5.5: 12-2 ATS, including 10-1 when the opponent has eight or fewer days between games. 

Back the 49ers so long as they remain under on touchdown in Week 10. 

Buccaneers vs. 49ers: NFL Public Betting Trends

Check back on Friday for Buccaneers vs. 49ers public betting data and insights.