- The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point home underdog against the Ravens.
- The Ravens have won 20 of their last 21 games as favorites against NFC opponents.
- My Ravens vs. Buccaneers prediction depends on Mike Evans’ injury status.
For the first of a Monday Night Football doubleheader, the Ravens travel to Tampa Bay for a matchup with the Buccaneers.
After starting the year 0-2, Baltimore has reeled off four straight wins to sit atop the AFC North. Most recently, the Ravens eased their way past the Commanders 30-23 in Baltimore.
Tampa Bay, after starting 2-0, has struggled to deliver consecutive strong performances recently. They’re 2-2 SU in the last four with a 51-27 win over the Saints in Week 6.
Bet on Buccaneers vs. Ravens and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 7 Odds: Buccaneers vs. Ravens, MNF
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | -3.5 (-110) | 49.5 (-110) | -190 |
| Buccaneers | +3.5 (-110) | 49.5 (-110) | +155 |
Buccaneers vs. Ravens Prediction, MNF
If Mike Evans fails to suit up for the Buccaneers on Monday night, my Buccaneers vs. Ravens prediction is the Ravens Spread (-3.5, -110).
I can’t stress enough the importance of the closing number in this game.
Lamar Jackson is 22-1 SU in his last 23 games against the NFC, including 18-1 as a market favorite.
While he’s a dismal 7-11-1 ATS in those spots, there’s a clear cutoff point that determines his success.
At -4.5 or higher in those spots, Jackson is 3-11-1 ATS. At -4 or lower, he’s a perfect 4-0 ATS as a favorite against the NFC.
History also says the Buccaneers aren’t in a great spot.
Home underdogs off a win by 20 or more points are 33-45-1 ATS (42%) in their next game, including 5-12-1 in non-conference matchups.
Just since 2021, those underdogs are 4-9 ATS, including 0-4 in non-conference matchups.
Statistically, it’s also not a great matchup for the Tampa Bay defense.
The Bucs sit 25th in defensive EPA per play against the run. That’s a huge problem against a Ravens team second in the corresponding offensive category.
Additionally, the Ravens sit third in passing success rate taking on a Bucs pass defense 24th in the corresponding defensive category.
That leads me to think Baltimore can score at will against Tampa’s defense. The question then becomes if Tampa can keep up.
If Evans doesn’t play, it severely hampers Tampa’s ability to exploit a Baltimore pass defense 27th in dropback EPA per play and 23rd in dropback success rate.
Wait for the injury news before making this bet. If Evans is out and the Ravens are available at -4 or better, I’ll back the road favorite.
Buccaneers vs. Ravens: NFL Public Betting Trends
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | 63% | 70% | 49% | 61% |
| Buccaneers | 37% | 30% | 51% | 39% |
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