Buccaneers vs. Ravens Prediction: NFL Week 7 Odds, Betting Picks, MNF

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Baltimore Ravens' Lamar Jackson (8) and Derrick Henry, left, celebrate Jackson's rushing touchdown during an NFL football game against the Dallas Cowboys, Sunday, Sept. 22, 2024 in Arlington, Texas. The Ravens defeated the Cowboys, 28-25.
(AP Photo/Gareth Patterson)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Oct 24, 2024, 2:20 PM
  • The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point home underdog against the Ravens.
  • The Ravens have won 20 of their last 21 games as favorites against NFC opponents.
  • My Ravens vs. Buccaneers prediction depends on Mike Evansโ€™ injury status.

For the first of a Monday Night Football doubleheader, the Ravens travel to Tampa Bay for a matchup with the Buccaneers.ย 

After starting the year 0-2, Baltimore has reeled off four straight wins to sit atop the AFC North. Most recently, the Ravens eased their way past the Commanders 30-23 in Baltimore.ย 

Tampa Bay, after starting 2-0, has struggled to deliver consecutive strong performances recently. Theyโ€™re 2-2 SU in the last four with a 51-27 win over the Saints in Week 6.ย 

Bet on Buccaneers vs. Ravens and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.ย 

NFL Week 7 Odds: Buccaneers vs. Ravens, MNF

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Ravens-3.5 (-110)49.5 (-110)-190
Buccaneers+3.5 (-110)49.5 (-110)+155

Buccaneers vs. Ravens Prediction, MNF

If Mike Evans fails to suit up for the Buccaneers on Monday night, my Buccaneers vs. Ravens prediction is the Ravens Spread (-3.5, -110).ย 

I canโ€™t stress enough the importance of the closing number in this game.ย 

Lamar Jackson is 22-1 SU in his last 23 games against the NFC, including 18-1 as a market favorite.ย 

While heโ€™s a dismal 7-11-1 ATS in those spots, thereโ€™s a clear cutoff point that determines his success.ย 

At -4.5 or higher in those spots, Jackson is 3-11-1 ATS. At -4 or lower, heโ€™s a perfect 4-0 ATS as a favorite against the NFC.ย 

History also says the Buccaneers arenโ€™t in a great spot.ย 

Home underdogs off a win by 20 or more points are 33-45-1 ATS (42%) in their next game, including 5-12-1 in non-conference matchups.ย 

Just since 2021, those underdogs are 4-9 ATS, including 0-4 in non-conference matchups.ย 

Statistically, itโ€™s also not a great matchup for the Tampa Bay defense.ย 

The Bucs sit 25th in defensive EPA per play against the run. Thatโ€™s a huge problem against a Ravens team second in the corresponding offensive category.ย 

Additionally, the Ravens sit third in passing success rate taking on a Bucs pass defense 24th in the corresponding defensive category.

That leads me to think Baltimore can score at will against Tampaโ€™s defense. The question then becomes if Tampa can keep up.ย 

If Evans doesnโ€™t play, it severely hampers Tampaโ€™s ability to exploit a Baltimore pass defense 27th in dropback EPA per play and 23rd in dropback success rate.ย 

Wait for the injury news before making this bet. If Evans is out and the Ravens are available at -4 or better, Iโ€™ll back the road favorite.ย 

Buccaneers vs. Ravens: NFL Public Betting Trends

Bets% (Spread)Money% (Spread)Bets% (ML)Money% (ML)
Ravens63%70%49%61%
Buccaneers37%30%51%39%

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.