- The Chiefs are -4 point favorites vs the Chargers
- Total (Over/Under): 43 points
- Watch this game on NBC | UNIV | TELX
The Los Angeles Chargers (8-4-0) visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (11-1-0) on Dec. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EST in Kansas City, MO.
The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -4 (-110).
The Chargers vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 43 total points for the game.
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Chargers vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Chargers | +4 -110 | 43 -110 | +165 |
| Chiefs | -4 -110 | 43 -110 | -200 |
Chargers vs. Chiefs Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 68.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Chargers vs Chiefs Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chargers will cover the spread with 63.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chargers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Chargers Player Prop Bets Today
- Justin Herbert has hit the Completions Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.65 Units / 56% ROI)
- Justin Herbert has hit the Interceptions Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+7.95 Units / 46% ROI)
- Will Dissly has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.60 Units / 47% ROI)
- J.K. Dobbins has hit the Carries Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Cameron Dicker has hit the Field Goals Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.55 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Noah Gray has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+8.32 Units / 43% ROI)
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the TD Passes Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+7.45 Units / 62% ROI)
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the Carries Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+6.35 Units / 53% ROI)
- Noah Gray has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- Carson Steele has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 88% ROI)
Chargers Best Bets:
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 away games (+2.25 Units / 25% ROI)
Chiefs Best Bets:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 4Q Spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.00 Units / 30% ROI)
Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers art 8-3 (+4.7 Units / 35.61% ROI).
- Chargers are 8-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.8 Units / 18.49% ROI
- Chargers are 4-8 when betting the Over for -4.8 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Chargers are 8-4 when betting the Under for +3.6 Units / ROI
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs are 4-7 (-3.55 Units / -27.52% ROI).
- Chiefs are 11-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.2 Units / 26.32% ROI
- Chiefs are 6-6 when betting the Over for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Chiefs are 6-6 when betting the Under for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI
Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Chargers were winless (0-9) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .464.
The Chargers are 1-8 (.111) when within 3 points at the two minute warning since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Chargers were 3-8 (.273) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Chargers were 3-8 (.273) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers
The Chiefs are undefeated (6-0) at home this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Chiefs are 8-1 (.889) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .366.
The Chiefs are undefeated (8-0) when within 7 points at the two minute warning this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Chiefs are 12-5 (.706) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .275.
Additional Matchup Notes for Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have run successful plays on 64.7% of pass attempts against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Chargers have allowed successful plays on 62.5% of pass attempts with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.
The Chiefs have been successful on 63.0% of plays they have run against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Chargers have allowed their opponents to be successful on 53.8% of plays with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.
The Chiefs have averaged 0.23 epa per play against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Chargers have allowed 0.34 epa per play with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.
The Chargers have run successful plays on just 25.0% of rush attempts against a light front this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed successful plays on just 25.0% of rush attempts with a light front this season — 2nd-best in NFL.
The Chargers have a third down conversion rate of just 9.5% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2023 season — worst in NFL. The Chiefs defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 7.2% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2023 season — best in NFL.
The Chargers have run successful plays on just 24.1% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have pressured opposing QBs on 29.2% of passing plays this season — T-3rd-best in NFL.
Los Angeles Chargers Offense: Important Stats
The Chargers have run successful plays on 25% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Chargers have gone three and out on 30% of their drives this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 21%.
The Chargers have started 38 drives inside their own 10 yard line since the 2023 season — most in NFL.
The Chargers have run successful plays on 31% of plays in the 2nd half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats
The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 52% this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
The Chiefs averaged 0.27 epa per play against a stacked front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.
The Chiefs ran successful plays on 67% of plays against a heavy rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Chiefs have run successful plays on 63% of plays against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
Los Angeles Chargers Defense: Important Stats
The Chargers defense has allowed successful plays on 19% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 50%.
The Chargers defense have allowed -0.15 epa per play on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.00.
The Chargers defense has allowed first downs on 13% of pass attempts on 3rd and long this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 28%.
The Chargers defense allowed 0.64 epa per play with a light rush last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats
The Chiefs defense has allowed a passer rating of 105.9 on contested throws (52 Pass Attempts) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 71.9.
The Chiefs defense has allowed an average of 14.9 fantasy points per game to RBs this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 21.9.
The Chiefs defense allowed just 4.5 yards per dropback (675 yards/150 attempts) when targeted at a depth of 1-5 yards last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.
The Chiefs defense has allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 3 of 131 attempts (2%) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 9%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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