- The Chargers are -1 point favorites vs the Falcons
- Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The Los Angeles Chargers (7-4-0) visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons (6-5-0) on Dec. 1. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Atlanta, GA.
The Chargers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -1 (-120).
The Chargers vs. Falcons Over/Under is 47.5 total points for the game.
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Chargers vs. Falcons Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Chargers | -1 -120 | 47.5 -105 | -125 |
| Falcons | +1 -110 | 47.5 -115 | +105 |
Chargers vs. Falcons Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Chargers will win this game with 70.3% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Chargers vs Falcons Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread with 55.9% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chargers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Chargers Player Prop Bets Today
- Will Dissly has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.75 Units / 58% ROI)
- Justin Herbert has hit the Completions Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.05 Units / 41% ROI)
- D.J. Chark has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Justin Herbert has hit the Interceptions Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+6.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- J.K. Dobbins has hit the Carries Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 88% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Falcons players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Falcons Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Kyle Pitts has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+6.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- Kirk Cousins has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.25 Units / 51% ROI)
- Kirk Cousins has hit the Completions Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- Bijan Robinson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- Kirk Cousins has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.50 Units / 37% ROI)
Chargers Best Bets:
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.65 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 away games (+3.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 21 games (+3.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.25 Units / 28% ROI)
Falcons Best Bets:
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 4Q Spread in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+1.05 Units / 11% ROI)
Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers art 7-3 (+3.7 Units / 30.58% ROI).
- Chargers are 7-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.8 Units / 14.4% ROI
- Chargers are 4-7 when betting the Over for -3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI
- Chargers are 7-4 when betting the Under for +2.6 Units / ROI
Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons are 5-6 (-1.7 Units / -13.82% ROI).
- Falcons are 6-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.5 Units / -2.92% ROI
- Falcons are 4-7 when betting the Over for -3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI
- Falcons are 7-4 when betting the Under for +2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI
Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons
The Chargers were winless (0-9) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .464.
The Chargers are undefeated (6-0) when rushing for more than 100 yards this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .635.
The Chargers were 1-8 (.111) when not forcing a fumble last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .422.
The Chargers are 1-8 (.111) when within 3 points at the two minute warning since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers
The Falcons are undefeated (3-0) vs top 10 offenses this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .366.
The Falcons were 1-5 (.167) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .440.
The Falcons were 2-5 (.286) when making less than 3 explosive runs in a game last season — T-7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .443.
The Falcons are undefeated (3-0) when forcing at least one fumble this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .589.
Additional Matchup Notes for Los Angeles Chargers vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have a third down conversion rate of just 13.2% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Chargers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 11.9% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2023 season — T-2nd-best in NFL.
The Falcons have a third down conversion rate of just 10.0% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Chargers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 8.7% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — 2nd-best in NFL.
The Falcons have averaged 0.54 epa per play against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Chargers have allowed 0.24 epa per play with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.
The Chargers have gone three and out on 30.6% of their drives in the fourth quarter this season — worst in NFL. The Falcons have forced three and outs on 30.3% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL.
The Chargers have run successful plays on just 34.4% of pass attempts against a light front this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Falcons have pressured opposing QBs on 35.7% of pass attempts with a light front this season — 5th-best in NFL.
Chargers RBs have averaged just 6.4 yards after the catch this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Falcons have allowed just 6.9 yards after catch per reception to RBs this season — 3rd-best in NFL.
Los Angeles Chargers Offense: Important Stats
The Chargers have thrown the ball 18% of the time (6 Pass Attempts/34 plays) on 3rd and short this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Chargers ran successful plays on 29% of pass attempts against a stacked front last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.
The Chargers have run successful plays on 21% of rush attempts against a light front this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Chargers have committed 4 turnovers this season — fewest in NFL.
Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats
The Falcons targeted WRs 39% of the time (209 Pass Attempts/530 plays) last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.
The Falcons have averaged 0.54 epa per play against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.06.
The Falcons targeted TEs 33% of the time (174 Pass Attempts/530 plays) last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 20%.
The Falcons committed 6 turnovers in the red zone last season — most in NFL.
Los Angeles Chargers Defense: Important Stats
The Chargers defense has allowed successful plays on 19% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 51%.
The Chargers defense has allowed scores on 18% of opponent drives in the 1st quarter since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 29%.
The Chargers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 45.8 with a stacked front (16 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 110.0.
The Chargers defense has allowed successful plays on 39% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats
The Falcons defense has averaged a sack every 38.7 pass attempts (387 Pass Attempts/10 Sacks) this season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 13.9.
The Falcons defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (10/387) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7%.
The Falcons defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 14% of pass attempts (10/72) when they have pressured the QB this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 33%.
The Falcons defense has allowed successful plays on 72% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 51%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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