- The Chargers are -4 point favorites vs the Patriots
- Total (Over/Under): 42.5 points
- Watch this game on NFLN
The Los Angeles Chargers (9-6-0) visit Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots (3-12-0) on Dec. 28. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Foxborough, MA.
The Chargers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -4 (-110).
The Chargers vs. Patriots Over/Under is 42.5 total points for the game.
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Chargers vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Chargers | -4 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -225 |
| Patriots | +4 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +180 |
Chargers vs. Patriots Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Chargers will win this game with 57.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Chargers vs Patriots Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chargers will cover the spread with 55.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chargers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Chargers Player Prop Bets Today
- Justin Herbert has hit the Interceptions Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.15 Units / 48% ROI)
- Gus Edwards has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- Justin Herbert has hit the Completions Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.25 Units / 36% ROI)
- J.K. Dobbins has hit the Carries Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Josh Palmer has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.50 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Patriots Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Austin Hooper has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+7.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- Austin Hooper has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.20 Units / 35% ROI)
- Drake Maye has hit the Interceptions Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 73% ROI)
- Ja’Lynn Polk has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 67% ROI)
- Hunter Henry has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 86% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Patriots vs Chargers
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | +650 |
| J.K. Dobbins (LAC) | +650 |
| Ladd McConkey (LAC) | +750 |
| Gus Edwards (LAC) | +800 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Patriots vs Chargers
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | 13.5 -110 | 13.5 -120 |
Chargers Best Bets:
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+5.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 3Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.30 Units / 11% ROI)
Patriots Best Bets:
- The New England Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 17 games (+3.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+1.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.60 Units / 18% ROI)
Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers art 10-4 (+5.6 Units / 33.94% ROI).
- Chargers are 9-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.15 Units / 8.69% ROI
- Chargers are 6-9 when betting the Over for -3.9 Units / -23.64% ROI
- Chargers are 9-6 when betting the Under for +2.4 Units / ROI
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots are 6-8 (-2.7 Units / -16.41% ROI).
- Patriots are 3-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.8 Units / -25.33% ROI
- Patriots are 9-6 when betting the Over for +2.4 Units / 14.55% ROI
- Patriots are 6-9 when betting the Under for -3.9 Units / -23.64% ROI
Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Chargers are 1-9 (.100) when within 3 points at the two minute warning since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Chargers are 4-2 (.667) when not forcing a turnover this season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .303.
The Chargers were winless (0-9) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .464.
The Chargers were 1-5 (.167) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .440.
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers
The Patriots were winless (0-6) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .324.
The Patriots were 1-9 (.100) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .417.
The Patriots are 1-16 (.059) when trailing at the end of quarter 1 since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .321.
The Patriots were 1-7 (.125) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
Additional Matchup Notes for Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots
The Patriots have run just 11.0% offensive plays in the red zone since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Chargers have allowed their opponent to run just 12.0% of plays in the red zone since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL.
The Patriots ran successful plays on just 33.3% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field last week — 4th-worst in NFL. The Chargers allowed successful plays on just 33.3% of pass attempts on their own side of the field last week — 4th-best in NFL.
The Patriots have gone three and out on 30.8% of their drives in the first half this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Chargers have forced three and outs on 32.1% of opponent drives in the first half this season — best in NFL.
The Chargers have been successful on just 29.9% of plays they have run against a light front this season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Patriots have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 32.6% of plays with a light front this season — 3rd-best in NFL.
The Chargers have run successful plays on just 33.3% of pass attempts against a light front this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL. The Patriots have allowed successful plays on just 33.8% of pass attempts with a light front this season — 2nd-best in NFL.
The Chargers have a third down conversion rate of just 10.5% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Patriots defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 9.8% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — 2nd-best in NFL.
Los Angeles Chargers Offense: Important Stats
The Chargers have been flagged 5 times on offense in the red zone since the 2023 season — fewest in NFL.
The Chargers have started 21 drives inside their own 10 yard line this season — most in NFL.
The Chargers have averaged just 17.9 offensive penalty yards per game (269/15) this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 25.4.
The Chargers have started 42 drives inside their own 10 yard line since the 2023 season — most in NFL.
New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats
The Patriots ran successful plays on 24% of plays against a light front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Patriots started 24 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — most in NFL.
The Patriots started 65 drives inside their own 20 yard line last season — most in NFL.
The Patriots went three and out 20 times in the 1st quarter last season — most in NFL.
Los Angeles Chargers Defense: Important Stats
The Chargers defense allowed 17 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — 2nd-most in NFL.
The Chargers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 57.8 with a stacked front (19 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 110.5.
The Chargers defense allowed 0.64 epa per play with a light rush last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.
The Chargers defense has allowed successful plays on 66% of pass attempts with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats
20% of the plays ran against the Patriots were in the red zone in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 13%.
The Patriots defense has allowed 6.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (10,670 yards / 1,589 touches) since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 7.2.
The Patriots defense allowed rushes of 10+ yards on just 32 of 452 carries (7%) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 11%.
The Patriots defense allowed successful plays on 33% of rush attempts in the 2nd half last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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