Chargers vs. Raiders Prediction, Odds, Pick: NFL Week 1

It’s an AFC West divisional contest in Week 1 as the Raiders travel to face the Los Angeles Chargers. 

Hopes are high this season for the Chargers, who return Justin Herbert from injury and replaced Brandon Staley with Jim Harbaugh. Last year, they finished 5-12. 

As for Las Vegas, Antonio Pierce returns to the helm after guiding the Raiders to a 5-4 record as interim head coach last year. 

Let’s take a look at the NFL Betting Lines for the Week 1 game, along with my prediction. 

Chargers vs. Raiders Odds

• Los Angeles Chargers Moneyline: -185
• Las Vegas Raiders Moneyline: +150
• Game Spread: Chargers -3.5
• Game Over/Under: 42.5 Points

Chargers vs. Raiders Prediction

This could prove the trap underdog of Week 1, but I predict the Raiders cover the spread (+3.5, -115). 

It’s obvious to any close NFL observer that the Chargers, under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, are focused on running the ball. 

But that strategy is immediately going to be put to the test in Week 1. 

Last year, the Raiders posted two rush defensive grades of 80 or higher, per PFF. Both came against the Chargers. 

There’s no denying Los Angeles improved their offensive line, but I’m not certain it works against a Raiders unit eighth in rush EPA per play allowed last year, per rbsdm.com. 

There are also systems supporting a bet on the Raiders and a fade of the Chargers. 

Road divisional dogs south of +6.5 with a total south of 43.5 are 60.5% ATS in September. At +4 or shorter, they improve to 65.3% ATS. 

Additionally, early favorites, due to straight optimism, have struggled to cover early. 

Since 2005-06, home favorites priced between -7.5 and -0.5 are 90-149-7 ATS (37.7%) in Weeks 1-3, assuming they won eight or fewer games the previous season. 

Off a season with five or fewer wins, they fall to 30.1% ATS, including 4-19-1 (17.4%) in divisional contests.

With the line sitting on a key number, I’ll back the Raiders to cover at minimum.