- The Chargers are a 7.5-point home favorite against the Titans.
- Los Angeles has won two straight games by at least 17 points.
- My Chargers vs. Titans prediction is for the Titans to cover the spread.
The Chargers will go for a fourth win in their last five games on Sunday at SoFi Stadium against the Titans.
Los Angeles blitzed the Browns 27-10 in Week 9. In tandem with a 26-8 win over the Saints in Week 8, Jim Harbaugh’s side currently sits at 5-3 on the season.
Tennessee needed overtime to dispatch the Patriots last week. A 20-17 win gave the Titans their first win since Week 4 against the Dolphins.
Bet on Chargers vs. Titans and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 10 Odds: Chargers vs. Titans
Chargers vs. Titans Prediction
If the Titans stick with Mason Rudolph as the starting quarterback, my Chargers vs. Titans prediction is the Titans Spread (+7.5, -110).
The key question around Tennessee is whether its special teams will hold up enough to give the defense a chance at success.
Currently, Tennessee sits ninth in defensive EPA per play and third in defensive success rate. However, Brian Callahan’s side ranks 32nd in PFF’s special teams grades.
Where Tennessee excels defensively is against the run.
They’re seventh and fifth, respectively, in rush EPA per play and rush success rate while rating out 13th in opponents yards per rush attempt.
That’s much needed against a Chargers team obsessed with running the ball. Los Angeles sits ninth in rush play percentage but ranks 25th in yards per rush attempt.
If the Chargers can’t effectively move the ball via the ground, it likely inhibits their ability to cover a big number. Even if they can, it should burn clock and shorten the game.
Tennessee offers a similar profile to Los Angeles. They’re 14th in rushing play percentage and 15th in yards per rush attempt.
That enables a path for Tennessee in this game. The Chargers rank 22nd in opponent yards per rush attempt despite sitting second in rush EPA per play.
History suggests favorites that struggle in the former metric struggle to cover big spreads.
Home favorites priced between -13.5 and -5 in games 5-11 allowing north of 3.6 yards per rush attempt are 42.8% ATS since 2003.
When those favorites fall between -7.5 and -5: 93-123-9 ATS (43.1%).
Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh has struggled to cover big numbers as well. In his coaching tenure, Harbaugh is 12-15 ATS as a favorite of -6 or higher.
As a result, it’s the Titans or nothing for me on Sunday.
Chargers vs. Titans: NFL Public Betting Trends
Check back on Friday for Chargers vs. Titans public betting data and insights.
