Chargers vs. Titans Prediction: NFL Week 10 Odds, Betting Picks

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Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) in the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 13, 2024, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
(AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Nov 05, 2024, 1:23 PM
  • The Chargers are a 7.5-point home favorite against the Titans.
  • Los Angeles has won two straight games by at least 17 points.
  • My Chargers vs. Titans prediction is for the Titans to cover the spread.

The Chargers will go for a fourth win in their last five games on Sunday at SoFi Stadium against the Titans.ย 

Los Angeles blitzed the Browns 27-10 in Week 9. In tandem with a 26-8 win over the Saints in Week 8, Jim Harbaughโ€™s side currently sits at 5-3 on the season.ย 

Tennessee needed overtime to dispatch the Patriots last week. A 20-17 win gave the Titans their first win since Week 4 against the Dolphins.ย 

Bet on Chargers vs. Titans and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.ย 

NFL Week 10 Odds: Chargers vs. Titans

Nov 10 - 4 pm EST

Titans at Chargers

Chargers vs. Titans Prediction

If the Titans stick with Mason Rudolph as the starting quarterback, my Chargers vs. Titans prediction is the Titans Spread (+7.5, -110).ย 

The key question around Tennessee is whether its special teams will hold up enough to give the defense a chance at success.ย 

Currently, Tennessee sits ninth in defensive EPA per play and third in defensive success rate. However, Brian Callahanโ€™s side ranks 32nd in PFFโ€™s special teams grades.ย 

Where Tennessee excels defensively is against the run.ย 

Theyโ€™re seventh and fifth, respectively, in rush EPA per play and rush success rate while rating out 13th in opponents yards per rush attempt.ย 

Thatโ€™s much needed against a Chargers team obsessed with running the ball. Los Angeles sits ninth in rush play percentage but ranks 25th in yards per rush attempt.ย 

If the Chargers canโ€™t effectively move the ball via the ground, it likely inhibits their ability to cover a big number. Even if they can, it should burn clock and shorten the game.ย 

Tennessee offers a similar profile to Los Angeles. Theyโ€™re 14th in rushing play percentage and 15th in yards per rush attempt.ย 

That enables a path for Tennessee in this game. The Chargers rank 22nd in opponent yards per rush attempt despite sitting second in rush EPA per play.ย 

History suggests favorites that struggle in the former metric struggle to cover big spreads.ย 

Home favorites priced between -13.5 and -5 in games 5-11 allowing north of 3.6 yards per rush attempt are 42.8% ATS since 2003.ย 

When those favorites fall between -7.5 and -5: 93-123-9 ATS (43.1%).ย 

Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh has struggled to cover big numbers as well. In his coaching tenure, Harbaugh is 12-15 ATS as a favorite of -6 or higher.ย 

As a result, itโ€™s the Titans or nothing for me on Sunday.ย 

Chargers vs. Titans: NFL Public Betting Trends

Check back on Friday for Chargers vs. Titans public betting data and insights.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

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Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.