Chiefs vs Panthers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 12

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Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young passes against the New Orleans Saints during the first half of an NFL football game Monday, Sept. 18, 2023, in Charlotte, N.C.

(Rusty Jones/AP Photo)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 24, 2024, 11:20 AM

The Chiefs are -11 point favorites vs the Panthers
Total (Over/Under): 43 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Kansas City Chiefs (9-1-0) visit Bank of America Stadium to take on the Carolina Panthers (3-7-0) on Nov. 24. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Charlotte, NC.

The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -11 (-110).

The Chiefs vs. Panthers Over/Under is 43 total points for the game.

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Chiefs vs. Panthers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Chiefs	-11 -110	43 -110	-650
Panthers	+11 -110	43 -110	+450

Chiefs vs. Panthers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 88.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Chiefs vs Panthers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chiefs will cover the spread with 62.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today

Noah Gray has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+7.47 Units / 67% ROI)
Travis Kelce has hit the Receptions Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+6.45 Units / 28% ROI)
Isiah Pacheco has hit the Carries Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.90 Units / 50% ROI)
Patrick Mahomes has hit the Interceptions Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+5.80 Units / 26% ROI)
Patrick Mahomes has hit the Carries Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+5.75 Units / 48% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Panthers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Panthers Player Prop Best Bets Today

Bryce Young has hit the Passing Yards Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.65 Units / 51% ROI)
Bryce Young has hit the TD Passes Under in 8 of his last 12 games (+6.55 Units / 54% ROI)
Miles Sanders has hit the Carries Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.30 Units / 38% ROI)
Chuba Hubbard has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.80 Units / 64% ROI)
Adam Thielen has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.75 Units / 41% ROI)

Chiefs Best Bets:

The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2H Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.27 Units / 20% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.80 Units / 24% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 4Q Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.15 Units / 22% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.05 Units / 22% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.85 Units / 21% ROI)

Panthers Best Bets:

The Carolina Panthers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.80 Units / 47% ROI)
The Carolina Panthers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+7.75 Units / 37% ROI)
The Carolina Panthers have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.20 Units / 28% ROI)
The Carolina Panthers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.40 Units / 21% ROI)
The Carolina Panthers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.85 Units / 18% ROI)

Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs art 4-5 (-1.35 Units / -12.62% ROI).

Chiefs are 9-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.2 Units / 32.87% ROI
Chiefs are 5-5 when betting the Over for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI
Chiefs are 5-5 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / ROI

Panthers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Panthers are 3-7 (-4.6 Units / -42.59% ROI).

Panthers are 3-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.35 Units / 3.5% ROI
Panthers are 7-3 when betting the Over for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI
Panthers are 3-7 when betting the Under for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI

Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Carolina Panthers

The Chiefs are 11-5 (.688) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .269.

The Chiefs are 6-1 (.857) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — T-4th-best in NFL. The Panthers have turned the ball over 17 times this season — T-4th-most in NFL.

The Chiefs are 9-2 (.818) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Panthers have allowed an average of 138.6 rushing yards per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Chiefs are 16-4 (.800) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season — T-6th-best in NFL. The Panthers have averaged just 1.4 sacks per game over that time span — worst in NFL.

Carolina Panthers: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

The Panthers were winless (0-4) when sacking the QB 3 or more times last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .650.

The Panthers are 1-4 (.200) when sacking the QB 3 or more times since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .658.

The Panthers were winless (0-8) when losing at least one fumble last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .382.

The Panthers were 1-13 (.071) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .495.

Additional Matchup Notes for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers have been successful on just 35.0% of plays they have ran against a base rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 40.7% of plays with a base rush since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL.

The Panthers have been successful on just 39.0% of plays they have ran with motion since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 40.0% of plays against motion since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Panthers have run successful plays on just 25.0% of rush attempts against a stacked front this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed successful plays on just 25.0% of rush attempts with a stacked front this season — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Chiefs have been successful on 50.2% of plays they have ran this season — best in NFL. The Panthers have allowed their opponents to be successful on 48.1% of plays this season — worst in NFL.

The Chiefs have run 18.1% offensive plays in the red zone this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Panthers have allowed their opponent to run 18.2% of plays in the red zone this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 50.2% of rush attempts against a base front this season — best in NFL. The Panthers have allowed successful plays on 52.3% of rush attempts with a base front this season — worst in NFL.

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 71% of pass attempts against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 70% of plays against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 75% of plays against a heavy rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Chiefs ran successful plays on 68% of pass attempts against a heavy rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

Carolina Panthers Offense: Important Stats

The Panthers have averaged -0.42 epa per play on play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.07.

The Panthers have averaged 0.15 epa per play against open coverage this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.40.

The Panthers ran successful plays on 37% of pass attempts on motion plays last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Panthers have averaged -0.30 epa per play on play action passes since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.08.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats

The Chiefs defense has allowed a passer rating of 122.6 on contested throws (30 Pass Attempts) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 71.4.

The Chiefs defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 7% on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Chiefs defense has allowed successful plays on 13% of plays with tight coverage since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

The Chiefs defense has not allowed a pass completion for 20+ yards (47 attempts) on 3rd and long this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 9%.

Carolina Panthers Defense: Important Stats

The Panthers defense has allowed successful plays on 10% of pass attempts with a heavy rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Panthers defense has allowed successful plays on 9% of plays with a heavy rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Panthers defense allowed an average of 2.3 yards after contact per carry (472 carries) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.8.

The Panthers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 33.3 with a heavy rush (10 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 107.0.

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