- The Chiefs are a 9-point home favorite against the Buccaneers.
- The Chiefs have won 13 straight games with only three wins by double digits.
- My Chiefs vs. Buccaneers prediction is for the Buccaneers to cover the spread.
The Chiefs will look to improve to 8-0 on Monday Night when they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a Week 9 matchup.
Kansas City used a 27-20 win over the Raiders to reach 7-0 on the season. That extends Kansas City’s winning streak to 13, with 10 of those wins coming by a one-score margin.
Tampa Bay suffered a second straight defeat in Week 8. Despite a late charge in the second half, the Bucs fell for the second straight game against the Falcons.
Bet on Chiefs vs. Buccaneers and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 9 Odds: Chiefs vs. Buccaneers
Nov 24 - 1 pm ESTBuccaneers at Giants
Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Prediction, MNF
Based on Tampa Bay’s strong offensive metrics and Patrick Mahomes’ poor ATS record as a big favorite, my Chiefs vs. Buccaneers prediction is the Buccaneers Spread (+9, -110).
The Bucs offense lost both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin for the Falcons game. However, their offensive performance left me encouraged.
Cade Otton has emerged as a good option for Baker Mayfield. That’s going to spell trouble for Kansas City, which has struggled to defend tight ends.
Over the last two weeks, Tampa Bay sits eighth in EPA per play and sixth in success rate.
On Monday, they get a Chiefs defense 20th in defensive success rate and 23rd in defensive success rate against the pass.
Even if the Chiefs race out to an early lead, the backdoor cover should remain open against a weak pass defense.
Plus, Patrick Mahomes has struggled to cover big numbers in his career.
Mahomes is 18-25-3 ATS at -7 or higher since joining the league. As a favorite of -7 or higher against the NFC: 2-7 ATS.
Comparatively, Mayfield is 16-13 at +3.5 or higher and 15-7 ATS as a road dog of +3.5 or higher.
History also tells us that rested big underdogs tend to keep games close.
Since 2003, dogs at +8.5 or higher with 8-14 days between games are 62% ATS, assuming the favorite has either seven or eight days between games.
Here’s the kicker: when the favorite allows 6.5 yards per pass or higher: 46-25-2 ATS (65%), including 15-2 ATS in non-conference games.
Take the Buccaneers to cover the spread on Monday night.
Chiefs vs. Buccaneers: NFL Public Betting Trends
Check back on Friday for Chiefs vs. Buccaneers public betting data and insights.
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