- The Chiefs are a 4-point home favorite against the Chargers.
- The Chiefs have won 12 straight home games when playing with a rest advantage.
- My Chiefs vs. Chargers prediction is for Los Angeles to cover the spread.
Kansas City can clinch the AFC West with a win on Sunday Night Football against the Chargers.
Both teams earned Week 13 wins in tight games. The Chiefs, as 13.5-point favorites, eked out a win over the Raiders thanks to a last-second Las Vegas fumble to move to 11-1.
Los Angeles played with a sizable rest disadvantage against Atlanta in Week 13. However, their defense intercepted Kirk Cousins four times on their way to a 17-13 victory.
Bet on Chiefs vs. Chargers and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 14 Odds: Chiefs vs. Chargers
2024-12-09T01:20:00ZChargers at Chiefs
Chiefs vs. Chargers Prediction
Based on Patrick Mahomes’ weak record as a large favorite and the Chiefs’ continuous luck, my Chiefs vs. Chargers prediction is the Chargers Spread (+4, -110).
I only like this at +4 or better in Week 14, but it’s the Chargers or nothing for me.
These teams met in Week 4, with the Chargers closing as seven-point home underdogs. Justin Herbert was banged up, and a number of defensive starters weren’t featured.
Still, the Chargers stayed within the number and limited Kansas City’s offense to only 17 points.
There’s a clear line of no return when fading Patrick Mahomes. He’s lethal against the spread at -3 or shorter but struggles to cover numbers north of 3.5.
Since joining the league, Mahomes is 43% ATS at -3.5 or higher. When he’s priced between -5 and -3.5: 5-10 ATS, including a dismal 1-4 ATS in that spot at home.
Mahomes has covered this number seven times in 12 games this season, but he’s failed to cover this number in each of his previous four contests.
There’s also a clear matchup edge for the Chargers.
While everyone regards this team as a run-first offense, Greg Roman’s unit actually ranks 12th in pass offense DVOA.
On Sunday, they get a Chiefs defense 21st in the corresponding defensive category, per ftnfantasy.com.
Kansas City also ranks 27th in DVOA against WR1’s, giving a favorable matchup for Ladd McConkey if healthy.
History also likes this spot for the Chargers as road underdogs.
Since 2003, road divisional dogs between +2.5 and +6.5 with a total between 41.5 and 45.5 are 61% ATS.
When those teams fall between +2.5 and +4: 85-53-5 (61.6%), including 26-9 (74.3%) since 2020.
Betting Chiefs vs. Chargers: NFL Public Betting
Check back on Friday for Chiefs vs. Chargers public betting data and insights.
