- The Chiefs are a 2.5-point home underdog against the Texans.
- The Chiefs have won 19 of their last 20 games and nine straight at home.
- My Chiefs vs. Texans prediction focuses on the Houston Team Total.
Saturday’s NFL slate kicks off with a marquee AFC matchup as the Chiefs host the Texans at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
Kansas City captured a convincing 21-7 win over Cleveland in Week 15. However, they lost Patrick Mahomes to an ankle injury late, leaving Mahomes’ status for Saturday in question.
Houston, off a Week 14 bye, edged out the Dolphins 20-13 on Sunday in Houston as three-point favorites. With Indianapolis’ loss, Houston captured a second straight division title.
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NFL Week 16 Odds: Chiefs vs. Texans
Chiefs vs. Texans Prediction
Based on C.J. Stroud’s struggles outdoors and the strength of Kansas City’s defense, my Chiefs vs. Texans prediction is the Houston Team Total Under.
Mahomes’ potential absence deals a big blow to Kansas City’s offense. However, it’s a favorable matchup for their defense against an overrated offense.
The Texans amassed only 181 yards of offense against a Dolphins defense coming off an overtime game. In the process, they needed four turnovers to reach 20 points.
That result came against a defense 19th in defensive DVOA for the season. On Saturday, they’ll play on short rest against a defense 11th in that category, per ftnfantasy.com.
Stroud has struggled away from home against good defenses this season.
This season, the Texans have faced only two defenses 12th or better away from home. They managed only seven points in Minnesota and 22 against Green Bay.
Now, they face a Chiefs defense that has excelled at home. Only two teams have eclipsed 22 points against Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium.
Those teams are the Bengals and Buccaneers, who sit sixth and seventh in offensive DVOA. Currently, the Texans rank 25th in offensive DVOA.
Some of that record can be attributed to the prolonged absences of Joe Mixon and Nico Collins.
However, the lack of experience against quality defenses for Houston – they’ve played the 28th-hardest set of opposing defenses – should display fully on Saturday.
As a result, I’ll back the Texans team total under away from home.
Betting Chiefs vs. Texans: NFL Public Betting
Check back on Friday for Chiefs vs. Texans public betting data and insights.
