Chiefs vs. Texans Prediction: NFL Divisional Round Odds, Betting Picks

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes throws before an NFL preseason football game against the Cleveland Browns Saturday, Aug. 26, 2023, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
(AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
  • The Chiefs are an 8.5-point home favorite against the Texans.
  • Kansas City is 8-0 SU at home this year, including a 27-19 win over Houston.
  • My Chiefs vs. Texans prediction focuses on the pregame total.

Seeking a ninth straight win at home, the well-rested Chiefs greet the Texans in the divisional round.ย 

Kansas City hasnโ€™t played a meaningful game in quite some time. After clinching the top seed with a win over the Steelers in Week 17, top Chiefs have enjoyed two weeks of rest.ย 

Houston captured a 32-12 win as home underdogs against the Chargers in the wild-card round. Now, theyโ€™ll look to topple a Kansas City side that beat Houston 27-19 in Week 16.ย 

Bet on Chiefs vs. Texans and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.ย 

NFL Divisional Round Odds: Chiefs vs. Texans

Jan 18 - 4 pm EST

Texans at Chiefs

Chiefs vs. Texans Prediction

Based on the extensive rest for Kansas City and Houstonโ€™s penchant for unders north of a key number, my Chiefs vs. Texans prediction is Under 42.5 Points (-110).ย 

Thereโ€™s a very narrow margin for taking this number given the past performances of Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans.ย 

Ryans, in his career, is 20-5-1 to the under when the pregame total closes north of 42 points. When it closes at 41.5 or shorter, Ryans is 8-1 to the OVER.ย 

Although the Texans scored 32 on Saturday, the game included a number of unlikely scores.ย 

Houston scored nine points off an interception return for a touchdown and a blocked extra point off an 86-yard touchdown pass from Justin Herbert.ย 

That should normalize week-over-week, especially for Houstonโ€™s offense. Although they mustered 351 in the last meeting, it came with both teams playing on short rest.ย 

Against a rested Chiefs defense that ranks 12th in defensive DVOA, bettors should expect a lackluster effort from the Houston offense.ย 

At the same time, Kansas City has historically proved a profitable under team at home under Patrick Mahomes.ย 

Over the last three seasons, the Chiefs are 20-7 to the under at home when theyโ€™re listed as a home favorite, including 7-1 when the total closes under 43.5 points.ย 

Lastly, dating back to the 2021 postseason, unders are 16-6 when the home teamโ€™s spread falls between -9.5 and -3.5, including 3-0 when the Chiefs are the hosts.ย 

As a result, grab the under right now at 42.5 points. However, if the total falls below 42 points, it would become a pass based on Ryansโ€™s historical record.ย 

Betting Chiefs vs. Texans: NFL Public Betting

First Bet Offer $1,500 FBO
Bets% (ATS)Money% (ATS)Bets% (ML)Money% (ML)
Texans50%43%62%25%
Chiefs50%57%38%75%
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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.