- The Buccaneers are -3 point favorites vs the Commanders
- Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
- Watch this game on NBC | PEAC | UNIV | TELX
The Washington Commanders visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Jan. 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Tampa, FL.
The Buccaneers are betting favorites in this NFc Wild Card matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-115).
The Commanders vs. Buccaneers Over/Under is 50.5 total points for the game.
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Commanders vs. Buccaneers Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Commanders | +3 -105 | 50.5 -110 | +150 |
| Buccaneers | -3 -115 | 50.5 -110 | -185 |
Commanders vs. Buccaneers Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Buccaneers will win this game with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Commanders vs Buccaneers Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Buccaneers will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Commanders players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Commanders Player Prop Bets Today
- Austin Seibert has hit the Field Goals Over in his last 7 games (+7.15 Units / 85% ROI)
- Brian Robinson has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.15 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jayden Daniels has hit the Pass Attempts Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 84% ROI)
- Jayden Daniels has hit the Completions Over in his last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 92% ROI)
- Zane Gonzalez has hit the Field Goals Under in his last 5 games (+5.20 Units / 89% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Buccaneers Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Bucky Irving has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.35 Units / 51% ROI)
- Baker Mayfield has hit the TD Passes Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.75 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jalen McMillan has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 86% ROI)
- Jalen McMillan has hit the Receptions Over in his last 5 games (+5.45 Units / 96% ROI)
- Baker Mayfield has hit the Completions Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+5.25 Units / 22% ROI)
Commanders Best Bets:
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.87 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.75 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 away games (+5.35 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.95 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.20 Units / 18% ROI)
Buccaneers Best Bets:
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 4Q Spread in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.15 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+8.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 2H Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.41 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.70 Units / 53% ROI)
Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders art 10-6 (+3.45 Units / 18.3% ROI).
- Commanders are 12-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.3 Units / 15.04% ROI
- Commanders are 11-6 when betting the Over for +4.4 Units / 23.53% ROI
- Commanders are 6-11 when betting the Under for -6.1 Units / ROI
Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers are 10-7 (+2.25 Units / 11.97% ROI).
- Buccaneers are 10-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.8 Units / 6.91% ROI
- Buccaneers are 12-5 when betting the Over for +6.5 Units / 34.76% ROI
- Buccaneers are 5-12 when betting the Under for -8.2 Units / -43.85% ROI
Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Commanders are 9-2 (.818) when rushing for 120 or more yards this season — 7th-best in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed an average of 140.2 rushing yards per game this season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Commanders are 10-3 (.769) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — 6th-best in NFL. The Cowboys have turned the ball over 27 times this season — T-4th-most in NFL.
The Commanders were 2-8 (.200) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Commanders were 2-12 (.143) when committing 1 or more turnovers last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .406.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders
The Buccaneers are winless (0-3) when within 3 points at the two minute warning this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Buccaneers were winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.
The Buccaneers are winless (0-4) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .430.
The Buccaneers are 2-2 (.500) when not forcing a turnover this season — 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .284.
Additional Matchup Notes for Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers have been successful on 49.4% of plays they have run with motion this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Saints have allowed their opponents to be successful on 47.2% of plays against motion this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Buccaneers have been successful on 50.0% of plays they have run against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Saints have allowed their opponents to be successful on 48.4% of plays with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Buccaneers have been successful on 56.2% of plays they have run against a stacked front this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Saints have allowed their opponents to be successful on 60.8% of plays with a stacked front this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Commanders have been successful on 52.1% of plays they have run against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed their opponents to be successful on 51.2% of plays with a stacked front since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL.
The Commanders have averaged 0.22 epa per play against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed 0.23 epa per play with a stacked front since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL.
The Commanders have averaged 0.26 epa per play against a light rush since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed 0.59 epa per play with a light rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.
Washington Commanders Offense: Important Stats
The Commanders ran successful plays on 69% of rush attempts against a base front in Week 17 — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Commanders have run successful plays on 65% of rush attempts against a base rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 51%.
The Commanders have run 23% of their plays in the red zone in the 1st quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 13%.
The Commanders ran 56% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter in Week 17 — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: Important Stats
The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 50% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 32%.
The Buccaneers threw for 5 TDs in Week 17 — most in NFL.
The Buccaneers have a third down conversion rate of 31% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 18%.
The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 73% of pass attempts against a stacked front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 50%.
Washington Commanders Defense: Important Stats
The Commanders defense allowed 0.16 epa per play in the 1st half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.00.
The Commanders defense has allowed scores on 49% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 34%.
The Commanders defense allowed scores on 46% of opponent drives last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 35%.
The Commanders defense allowed scores on 51% of opponent drives in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 29%.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense: Important Stats
The Buccaneers defense allowed a passer rating of just 25.3 with a stacked front (16 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 110.0.
The Buccaneers defense has allowed successful plays on 93% of rush attempts against play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 53%.
The Buccaneers defense has allowed an average of 1.6 yards after contact per carry (773 carries) since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 1.9.
The Buccaneers defense hurried opposing QBs on 68% of pass attempts in Week 17 — best in NFL; League Avg: 16%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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