- The Buccaneers are -3 point favorites vs the Commanders
- Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
- Watch this game on NBC | PEAC | UNIV | TELX
The Washington Commanders () visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers () on Jan. 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Tampa, FL.
The Buccaneers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).
The Commanders vs. Buccaneers Over/Under is 50.5 total points for the game.
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Commanders vs. Buccaneers Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Commanders | +3 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +140 |
| Buccaneers | -3 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -165 |
Commanders vs. Buccaneers Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Buccaneers will win this game with 61.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Commanders vs Buccaneers Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Buccaneers will cover the spread with 57.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Commanders players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Commanders Player Prop Bets Today
- Austin Seibert has hit the Field Goals Over in his last 7 games (+7.15 Units / 85% ROI)
- Brian Robinson has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.15 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jayden Daniels has hit the Pass Attempts Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 84% ROI)
- Jayden Daniels has hit the Completions Over in his last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 92% ROI)
- Zane Gonzalez has hit the Field Goals Under in his last 5 games (+5.20 Units / 89% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Buccaneers Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Bucky Irving has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.35 Units / 51% ROI)
- Baker Mayfield has hit the TD Passes Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.75 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jalen McMillan has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 86% ROI)
- Jalen McMillan has hit the Receptions Over in his last 5 games (+5.45 Units / 96% ROI)
- Bucky Irving has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+5.13 Units / 39% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Buccaneers vs Commanders
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Bucky Irving (TB) | +500 |
| Mike Evans (TB) | +700 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Buccaneers vs Commanders
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans (TB) | 75.5 -115 | 75.5 -115 |
| Terry McLaurin (WAS) | 60.5 -115 | 60.5 -115 |
| Rachaad White (TB) | 10.5 -115 | 10.5 -115 |
| Austin Ekeler (WAS) | 18.5 -110 | 18.5 -120 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Buccaneers vs Commanders
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | 17.5 -120 | 17.5 -115 |
| Austin Ekeler (WAS) | 19.5 -110 | 19.5 -120 |
| Rachaad White (TB) | 14.5 -115 | 14.5 -115 |
Commanders Best Bets:
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.95 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have covered the 1Q Spread in 10 of their last 15 games (+6.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+5.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.45 Units / 19% ROI)
Buccaneers Best Bets:
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+10.05 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 1Q Spread in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 4Q Spread in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.15 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 22 games (+7.20 Units / 21% ROI)
Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders art 10-6 (+3.45 Units / 18.3% ROI).
- Commanders are 12-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.3 Units / 15.04% ROI
- Commanders are 11-6 when betting the Over for +4.4 Units / 23.53% ROI
- Commanders are 6-11 when betting the Under for -6.1 Units / ROI
Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers are 10-7 (+2.25 Units / 11.97% ROI).
- Buccaneers are 10-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.8 Units / 6.91% ROI
- Buccaneers are 12-5 when betting the Over for +6.5 Units / 34.76% ROI
- Buccaneers are 5-12 when betting the Under for -8.2 Units / -43.85% ROI
Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Commanders were 3-11 (.214) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .495.
The Commanders were winless (0-8) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .426.
The Commanders were 2-8 (.200) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Commanders were 3-10 (.231) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .464.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders
The Buccaneers are winless (0-3) when within 3 points at the two minute warning this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Buccaneers were winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.
The Buccaneers are winless (0-4) when having a TO margin of -2 or worse since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .143.
The Buccaneers are 4-1 (.800) vs top 10 pass defenses this season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .553.
Additional Matchup Notes for Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers have scored on 46.3% of their drives in the fourth quarter this season — T-3rd-best in NFL. The Commanders defense has allowed scores on 55.3% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL.
The Buccaneers have averaged 0.09 epa per play with motion since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Commanders have allowed 0.05 epa per play against motion since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Buccaneers have averaged 0.05 epa per play in the second half since the 2023 season — T-5th-best in NFL. The Commanders have allowed 0.07 epa per play in the second half since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Commanders have run successful plays on 65.4% of rush attempts against a base rush this season — best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed successful plays on 65.1% of rush attempts with a base rush this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Commanders have run 54.5% offensive plays on their opponent’s side of the field this season — T-best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed their opponents to run 51.1% of plays in their territory this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Commanders have run successful plays on 60.0% of pass attempts against a heavy rush this season — T-best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed successful plays on 59.0% of pass attempts with a heavy rush this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
Washington Commanders Offense: Important Stats
The Commanders have averaged 0.56 epa per play against a stacked front this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.09.
The Commanders have averaged 10.6 yards per play against a light rush this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 6.9.
The Commanders have run successful plays on 64% of plays against a stacked front this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Commanders were sacked on 16% of pass attempts (6/37) in Week 18 — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 5%.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: Important Stats
The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 48% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 32%.
The Buccaneers have a third down conversion rate of 60% in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.
The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 70% of pass attempts against a stacked front since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 51%.
The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 33% of rush attempts last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
Washington Commanders Defense: Important Stats
The Commanders defense allowed 39 TD passes last season — most in NFL.
The Commanders defense has allowed 4.3 TDs per interception (64 TDs allowed, and 15 INT) since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.9.
The Commanders defense allowed 0.16 epa per play in the 1st half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.00.
The Commanders defense allowed a passer rating of 109.4 with a base rush (547 Pass Attempts) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 89.4.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense: Important Stats
The Buccaneers defense has allowed successful plays on 93% of rush attempts against play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 53%.
The Buccaneers defense allowed a passer rating of just 25.3 with a stacked front (16 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 110.0.
The Buccaneers defense has allowed successful plays on 23% of rush attempts on motion plays since Week 15 — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Buccaneers defense has blitzed on 25% of plays this season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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