- The Commanders are a 3-point home underdog against the Bears.
- The Bears have lost each of their last nine road games following a win.
- My Commanders vs. Bears prediction is to back the Bears to cover the spread.
The Bears, off a Week 7 bye week with three straight wins, travel to Northwest Stadium on Sunday for a meeting with the Commanders.
Prior to the bye week, Chicago captured three straight outright wins against the Rams, Panthers and Jaguars. Despite sitting at 4-2, Chicago is last in the NFC North.
Washington continued its winning ways as well in Week 7. Despite losing Jayden Daniels to injury, Washington eased past Carolina 40-7.
Bet on Commanders vs. Bears and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 8 Odds: Commanders vs. Bears
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | -3 (-105) | 43 (-110) | -150 |
| Commanders | +3 (-115) | 43 (-110) | +125 |
Commanders vs. Bears Prediction
Based on Chicago’s strong defensive record and Washington’s poor defensive metrics, my Commanders vs. Bears prediction is the Bears Spread (-2.5, -115).
There will come a time to sell Chicago. Unfortunately, this game isn’t it.
Chicago has shown that when it plays a bad defense, results tend to go its way. All four of Chicago’s wins this season have come against teams 21st or worse in PFF’s defensive grades.
Week 8 gives the Bears another matchup with a bad defense. Washington ranks 27th in PFF’s defensive grades, EPA per play and defensive success rate.
The Commanders are particularly bad against the pass, sitting 28th in coverage grades. Chicago is 3-0 SU against teams 24th or worse in that category this season.
It’s also a fantastic sell-high spot on the Washington offense.
So much of their success this season has come because Washington played bad defenses. Through seven weeks, the average EPA per play rank of their opponents is 20.6.
In fact, the Bears are the first team they’ll face this season 10th or better in EPA per play.
If Daniels doesn’t play, it’s a big ask for Marcus Mariota to overcome this strong defense.
The Bears also match a historically profitable system in this spot.
Road favorites at -7 or shorter with 14 or more days rest in games 1-10 are 69% ATS since 2003.
At -3 or shorter: 33-15-2 ATS (69%). In games 4-10: 33-12-2, including 11-3-1 when the dog is off a win by seven or more points.
Based on those factors, take the Bears so long as the visitors are -3 or better on Sunday.
Commanders vs. Bears: NFL Public Betting Trends
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | 54% | 71% | 32% | 51% |
| Commanders | 46% | 29% | 68% | 49% |
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