- The Commanders are a 10.5-point home favorite against the Cowboys.
- The Cowboys have lost eight straight as underdogs against NFC opponents.
- My Commanders vs. Cowboys prediction is for Washington to cover the 1Q spread.
Seeking an end to a two-game losing streak, the Commanders host the Cowboys on Sunday at Northwest Stadium.
Washington started strong against the Eagles last Thursday. However, Philadelphia’s second-half comeback resigned Washington to a second consecutive loss.
The good news for Washington? Their Week 12 opponent is a crisis-ridden Cowboys squad. A 34-10 home loss to Houston dropped Dallas to 3-7 with five straight losses.
Bet on Commanders vs. Cowboys and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 12 Odds: Commanders vs. Cowboys
Commanders vs. Cowboys Prediction
Based on Washington’s rest advantage and their strength in the first quarter, my Commanders vs. Cowboys prediction is the Washington 1Q Spread (-1.5, -130).
The fact this price is so low leads me to question if it’s a trap, but Washington has excelled in the first quarter.
Jayden Daniel is 5-2-4 SU and 8-3 ATS in the opening 15 minutes this season. At home, he’s covered this number three times in the previous four contests.
Meanwhile, Dallas has struggled immensely in the first 15 minutes.
The Cowboys are 0-3 SU & ATS in their last three first quarters. For the entire season, Mike McCarthy’s side is 2-7-1 SU & 3-7 ATS in the first quarter.
From a metrics standpoint, this game appears a major mismatch.
Washington’s offense ranks 13th and 8th in first quarter EPA per play and success rate, respectively.
Comparatively, Dallas’ defense sits 32nd and 29th in the corresponding defensive metrics.
Meanwhile, the Commanders defense ranks third and ninth defensively in EPA per play and success rate while the Cowboys offense sits 21st and 27th offensively.
This season, Dallas has played two teams fifth or better in first quarter defensive EPA per play. Their record in those quarters: 0-2 with a -17 point differential.
With the Commanders desperate to end their losing streak, back them to start strong against a Cowboys team traveling off a MNF matchup.
Betting Commanders vs. Cowboys: NFL Public Betting
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 25% | 15% | 57% | 39% |
| Commanders | 75% | 85% | 43% | 61% |
