- The Dolphins are -9.5 against the Commanders.
- Miami drubbed the Jets in Week 12, their second straight win.
- Washington received a 45-10 beatdown on Thanksgiving in Dallas.
Ahead of Week 13’s meeting in the nation’s capital, I’m here to provide a trio of Commanders vs. Dolphins predictions.
Coming out of their bye week, Miami has won two straight contests. Most recently, the AFC East leaders captured a 34-13 win over the New York Jets.
As for the Commanders, they’ve lost three straight and five of the last six. They’ve also lost four consecutive home games after opening the season with a win.
Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines for Sunday’s game, as well as my bets for the contest.
Commanders vs. Dolphins Betting Odds
- Washington Commanders Moneyline: +350
- Miami Dolphins Moneyline: -450
- Game Spread: Miami Dolphins -9.5
- Game Total: 49.5 Points
Commanders vs. Dolphins Predictions
Washington Commanders Spread (+9.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
This bet completely grosses me out, but it must be done.
I recognize the Commanders surrendered 45 points to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, but I want to focus on their offense.
Despite scoring only 10 points, Washington did a good job moving the football. In Week 12, they amassed 376 total yards, including 108 on the ground.
Plus, they only turned the ball over one time against a Cowboys defense third in defensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.
Now they face a Dolphins defense that has had it easy recently. In their last two games, they’ve faced the Jets (30th in offensive DVOA) and Raiders (29th).
The Commanders are only a slight upgrade – they’re 22nd – but bettors have seen them play well at home against good defenses, namely Philadelphia.
Lastly, the Commanders match a historically profitable betting system.
Since 2003-04, teams coming off a 20+ point loss playing a team that won by 15 or more are 60.7% ATS.
When those teams are at home, they’re 65.1% ATS.
Sam Howell Over 38.5 Passing Attempts (-115)
Until the Commanders show otherwise, I’ll back Howell to keep clearing his passing attempts prop.
Washington leads the league in passing attempts per game at 40.5. Over their last six games, Howell has attempted at least 42 passes in all six.
Plus, he’s cleared 45 attempts in half of those contests.
For the season as a whole, Howell has failed to overtake this number only three times, with two of those failures coming in a win.
Given Howell is averaging 43.5 attempts per game in eight losses this season, expect him to clear it again on Sunday as a result of the high spread.
Tyreek Hill Over 97.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Simply put, Washington is horrible against the pass.
Having traded Montez Sweat and Chase Young, Washington offers virtually no threat to pressure the quarterback.
Unfortunately, in Week 13, they face a top passing team in the Dolphins.
Regarding Hill specifically, he’s 7-4 to the over against this number. Shrink the sample down to five games against teams 22nd or worse in pass defense DVOA, and he’s 4-1.
Further, he’s coming off a 102-yard performance against the Jets, who are 28 spots ahead of Washington in pass defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.
Add in Washington has allowed 293.8 yards per game in four games against sides 10th or better in pass defense DVOA, and I’ll take the over on Hill’s prop.
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