- A key number associated with Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
- The spot in which to fade home favorites.
- An important over/under number where bettors should take underdogs.
As the NFL season draws closer, most bettors seek the same goal – maximizing and subsequently boosting their bankroll.
Bettors can accomplish this a number of different ways. However, one popular method is identifying historically profitable systems and matching them to teams each week.
Below, I have outlined five systems bettors can deploy throughout the season. To pair, I’ll identify the weekly matches to simplify the customer experience using NFL odds.
NFL Betting System No. 1: Underdogs with Low Total
This system builds off the theory that when the under does well, so does the underdog.
Over the last five NFL seasons, underdogs in games with totals less than or equal to 42 points are 148-110-5 ATS.
The system does even better when it’s a divisional matchup. Over the last five seasons, divisional underdogs with a total less than or equal to 42 are 60.2% ATS (65-43-3).
Here are the matches for the generalized system in Week 4: Buccaneers, Ravens, Texans.
NFL Betting System No. 2: Underdogs off Blowout Loss
The public often overestimates how bad teams are when the last contest saw them blown out.
Historically, it’s in the bettors’ interest to bet on teams coming off an embarrassing defeat.
Since the 2003-04 season, teams that lose by 20 or more points and are underdogs in the next game are 361-274-15 ATS. For bettors, the historical return on investment is 10%.
Even if you expand the sample to include teams that lost by 14 points minimum in the previous contest, underdogs are still 53.7% ATS.
Week 4 Matches: Commanders, Bears.
Week 4 Matches (14+ point defeat): Falcons, Commanders, Bears
NFL Betting System No. 3: Road Dog to Home Favorite
For clarity, I recommend betting against teams who find themselves a home favorite a week after closing a road underdog.
The theory here is that there’s little separating the two teams if the status changes. Additionally, one criterion I added is that the home favorite should have failed to reach the postseason last year.
Teams that fit the criteria are 376-444-21 (45.9%) ATS in weeks two through 17.
Here are the bets that fit the criteria for Week 4: Rams, Bengals.
NFL Betting System No. 4: Patrick Mahomes Favorite of -3.5 or Higher
Although it’s a comparably small sample, bettors should fade Patrick Mahomes when he’s starting, and the Chiefs are listed at -3.5 or higher.
For his career, the Texas Tech product is 28-35-1 ATS under this criterion. Conversely, when Mahomes is listed between -3 and +10, he’s 14-4-1 ATS.
By applying this information, bettors should hold their nose and take the Jets +9.5 in Week 4 on Sunday Night Football.
NFL Betting System No. 5: Weeks 1-6 Home Divisional Dogs
Unfortunately, this system expires once Week 7 arrives, but it’s profitable enough to list.
Since 2005-06, home divisional underdogs in the first six weeks of the season are 108-73-4 ATS. Over that span, the return on investment is 15.1%.
Shrink the sample down to the last five seasons, and bettors will find these sides are 25-15-0 ATS for a 21.4% ROI.
In Week 3, the Green Bay Packers are the only team that match this system.
Place Live Bets On NFL Odds
From the preseason through the postseason, you can place live bets on updated NFL odds.
While you’re watching the Las Vegas Raiders play the Denver Broncos, the Green Bay Packers play the Detroit Lions, or the Los Angeles Rams play the Arizona Cardinals, you can bet on live odds at BetMGM.