- The Cowboys are a 5.5-point home underdog against the Bengals.
- The Cowboys have won each of their last 12 home games in December.
- My Cowboys vs. Bengals prediction focuses on the first quarter.
Looking to end a three-game losing streak, the Bengals will travel to Dallas for a Week 14 meeting on MNF.
Cincinnati, off a Week 12 bye, fell 44-38 at home to the Steelers last week. It marks the fourth time this season the Bengals lost in spite of scoring 33 or more points.
Dallas earned a second straight win last Thursday against the Giants. That 27-20 victory vaulted Dallas to 5-7 on the year, good for third in the NFC East.
Bet on Cowboys vs. Bengals and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 14 Odds: Cowboys vs. Bengals
2024-12-10T01:15:00ZBengals at Cowboys
Cowboys vs. Bengals Prediction, MNF
Based on the Bengals’ strong metrics early on and Dallas’ weak first quarter record, my Cowboys vs. Bengals prediction is the Bengals 1Q Spread (-0.5, +100).
In the opening 15 minutes, the Bengals offense and Cowboys defense are glaringly mismatched.
Cincinnati ranks second in first-quarter EPA per play and sixth in first-quarter success rate this season, per rbsdm.com.
Defensively, the Cowboys ranked 32nd in EPA per play and 29th in defensive success rate across the first quarter.
Those metrics have guided Cincinnati to a 7-5 ATS record in the opening frame whereas Dallas is 3-8-1 ATS in the first quarter.
Shrink the sample down to games where Dallas closed a home underdog and bettors will find they’re 0-4 ATS against this number in those contests.
Cincinnati has closed a road favorite three times this season and has covered this number in all three of those games.
Perhaps most impressive for Cincinnati is that they own a 21-0 point differential in those three first quarters at Carolina, New York and Cleveland.
I’m also doing a bit of betting calculus for this contest.
Since 2003, road favorites between -3 and -0.5 are 64% ATS in the first half, assuming their previous game margin falls between -15 and -3, including 16-4 over the last two years.
But given Cincinnati’s strong advantage in the first quarter, I’ll elect to lay it there rather than in the first half. This year, the Bengals are only 6-6 ATS in the opening half.
That said, I won’t fault anyone who plays Bengals 1H Spread (-3, -115).
Betting Cowboys vs. Bengals: NFL Public Betting
Check back on Friday for Cowboys vs. Bengals public betting data and insights.
