- The Cowboys are a 6-point home underdog against the Commanders.
- The Cowboys have won four straight games as underdogs against the Commanders.
- My Cowboys vs. Commanders prediction is for Dallas to cover the spread.
The Cowboys will go for a third home win in their last four tries with a Week 18 meeting against the Commanders.
Dallas struggled immensely in Week 17, falling by 34 points against the Eagles. With no chance of reaching the postseason, Dallas is merely looking to spoil Washington’s playoff seeding.
The Commanders earned a thrilling overtime win against the Falcons on Sunday, clinching a playoff berth. With a win in Dallas, Washington can lock up the sixth seed in the NFC.
Bet on Cowboys vs. Commanders and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 18 Odds: Cowboys vs. Commanders
Cowboys vs. Commanders Prediction
Based on Dallas’ recent success as a home dog and the success of divisional dogs in January, my Cowboys vs. Commanders prediction is the Cowboys Spread (+6, -110).
On the surface, only one team has anything for which to play in this game: Washington.
Dan Quinn’s side can lock up the sixth seed with a win on Sunday. Doing so is the difference between the Eagles and Rams in the wild card round.
But this Washington team is coming off an overtime win and has loved playing close games this year.
Since Week 8, the Commanders have seen eight of nine games finish within a single possession.
Now, they’ll get a Dallas team that has played hard of late and given some teams trouble as home underdogs.
Dallas covered the spread and won outright against the Buccaneers. Despite failing to cover against Cincinnati, it came off an unlucky special teams play.
That renders this a solid buy-low spot on the Cowboys following a blowout defeat in Philadelphia.
Although they’ll operate without CeeDee Lamb, it shouldn’t matter against Washington. Entering Week 18, the Commanders rank 26th in rush defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.
History also likes this spot to back the Cowboys.
Since 2003, January home dogs with a win percentage between 26% and 50% are 25-8 ATS, assuming they’re coming off a loss.
When those dogs are coming off a loss by 14 or more points: 17-1 ATS, including 13-1 ATS in divisional games.
If Dallas can run the ball effectively and keep Washington’s offense off the field, there’s a case they could stay within this number.
Betting Cowboys vs. Commanders: NFL Public Betting
| Bets% (ATS) | Money% (ATS) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders | 88% | 95% | 70% | 93% |
| Cowboys | 12% | 5% | 30% | 7% |
