Detroit Lions Player Props: St. Brown, Goff, & Montgomery

If you’re interested in season-long prop bets for specific players, BetMGM has you covered. The online sportsbook has yardage and touchdown props for all of the major players on all 32 NFL teams.

Naturally, that’s a pretty big load of NFL odds to sift through. But I’m doing some of the base-level work so you don’t have to.

Today, I’m taking a look at the ever-popular Detroit Lions player props and offering a few thoughts on the numbers currently live at the book. 

Bettors have devoured Detroit Lions futures odds all offseason, and there was a frenzy over Lions Super Bowl odds in the spring. I have a feeling some of these markets might end up quite popular as well.

Jared Goff Passing Yards: O/U 3,899.5 Yards

Goff posted strong career numbers in 2022, playing all 17 regular-season games and throwing for 4,438 total yards. His raw yardage trailed only his 2018 and 2019 seasons with the Rams, when his teams were a combined 22-10. 

Goff’s 2023 passing attempts (587) and QBR (61.1) were also high, coming in as his second-best career marks. 

With a prop around 3,900 yards, the market is asking if Goff can get to roughly 90% of last year’s production. 

This is a more complicated question than a first glance may prove. Ben Johnson remains the OC in Detroit, which is great for Goff’s production.

However, the Lions’ defense should be improved this year, and the team may play with a lead far more often than it did last year. Jameson Williams is suspended and will be replaced by a much less-talented Kalif Raymond.

Jared Goff Passing TDs: O/U 24.5 TDs

Goff threw for 29 touchdowns in 2022. Prior to that, though, he hadn’t thrown for 25 or more since the 2018 season when the Rams won the NFC.

Detroit’s go-for-it offense and dangerous skill players make this a likely over, in my opinion. A total of 11 NFL quarterbacks threw for 25 or more touchdowns last year, including Kirk Cousins, Geno Smith, and Trevor Lawrence.

If you’re really bullish on Goff, he’s also 30-to-1 to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns at BetMGM. (That kind of season would almost certainly end the Lions division title drought.)

David Montgomery Rushing Yards: O/U 749.5 Rushing Yards

David Montgomery is an excellent acquisition for Detroit. He was able to grind out 800-yard seasons for Chicago in each of his four seasons with the Bears, despite the fact that Chicago’s offense rarely did much to surprise or stretch defenses from 2019 to present.

Whether or not you believe Montgomery is live for this number is entirely dependent on your feelings regarding the Lions’ depth chart. First-round draft pick Jahmyr Gibbs is a talented back that can be used in both as both a rusher and pass-catcher, which means he may ultimately vacuum up many carries that would otherwise go to Montgomery.

I love Montgomery as a player and believe he is a great asset to have in the locker room. However, the potential timeshare in the backfield makes me favor the under here. 

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving yards: O/U 949.5 Receiving Yards

Detroit’s No. 1 receiver has 196 receptions for 2,073 receiving yards over his first two years in the league. With Jameson Williams out of the picture, third-year St. Brown is in store for a massive target share in a powerful offense.

I’m not sure what the argument is here for anything but the over. St. Brown is also currently 20-to-1 to lead the NFL in receptions.

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving TDs: O/U 5.5 TDs

This one is a little harder to forecast, at least according to the history. St. Brown recorded six receiving touchdowns in 2022 and five in 2021. He’s sure to earn plenty of bracket red zone coverage this season. 

The longtail potential is high, but I’d still lean toward the under.