- The Dolphins are -6.5 point favorites vs the Browns
- Total (Over/Under): 40 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The Miami Dolphins (7-8-0) visit Huntington Bank Field to take on the Cleveland Browns (3-12-0) on Dec. 29. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05pm EST in Cleveland, OH.
The Dolphins are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).
The Dolphins vs. Browns Over/Under is 40 total points for the game.
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Dolphins vs. Browns Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Dolphins | -6.5 -110 | 40 -110 | -300 |
| Browns | +6.5 -110 | 40 -110 | +240 |
Dolphins vs. Browns Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Dolphins will win this game with 57.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Dolphins vs Browns Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Dolphins will cover the spread with 56.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dolphins Player Prop Bets Today
- Tyreek Hill has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.40 Units / 36% ROI)
- Braxton Berrios has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 84% ROI)
- Tyreek Hill has hit the Receptions Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+6.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jason Sanders has hit the Field Goals Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Raheem Mostert has hit the Receptions Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+5.10 Units / 73% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Browns players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Browns Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Jerome Ford has hit the Carries Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.65 Units / 59% ROI)
- Deshaun Watson has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Dustin Hopkins has hit the Field Goals Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- David Njoku has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- Deshaun Watson has hit the Interceptions Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.40 Units / 70% ROI)
Dolphins Best Bets:
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 8 away games (+1.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+1.00 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 20 games (+0.40 Units / 1% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 17 games (+0.10 Units / 1% ROI)
Browns Best Bets:
- The Cleveland Browns have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+6.15 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Cleveland Browns have covered the 4Q Spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.85 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Cleveland Browns have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+2.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 21 games (+1.60 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cleveland Browns have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 18 games (+0.70 Units / 3% ROI)
Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins art 6-9 (-4.05 Units / -24.25% ROI).
- Dolphins are 7-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -3 Units / -11.63% ROI
- Dolphins are 7-8 when betting the Over for -1.8 Units / -10.91% ROI
- Dolphins are 8-7 when betting the Under for +0.3 Units / ROI
Browns Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Browns are 4-11 (-8.15 Units / -48.95% ROI).
- Browns are 3-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.85 Units / -49.72% ROI
- Browns are 6-9 when betting the Over for -3.9 Units / -23.64% ROI
- Browns are 9-6 when betting the Under for +2.4 Units / 14.55% ROI
Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Cleveland Browns
The Dolphins were undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .574.
The Dolphins are 1-9 (.100) vs top 10 run offenses since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .394.
The Dolphins are 7-7 (.500) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .274.
The Dolphins are winless (0-3) vs top 10 offenses this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .307.
Cleveland Browns: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins
The Browns were 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.
The Browns are winless (0-3) after a win this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .587.
The Browns are 1-10 (.091) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .429.
The Browns are 1-7 (.125) on the road this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .481.
Additional Matchup Notes for Miami Dolphins vs. Cleveland Browns
The Browns have a third down conversion rate of just 28.4% this season — worst in NFL. The Dolphins defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 35.0% this season — 3rd-best in NFL.
The Browns have run successful plays on just 35.8% of rush attempts with motion this season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed successful plays on just 38.2% of rush attempts against motion this season — T-4th-best in NFL.
The Browns have been successful on just 31.6% of plays they have run against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 33.3% of plays with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — T-5th-best in NFL.
The Dolphins have averaged just -0.10 epa per play against a stacked front since the 2023 season — T-2nd-worst in NFL. The Browns have allowed just -0.09 epa per play with a stacked front since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL.
The Dolphins have run successful plays on just 25.9% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure this season — T-5th-worst in NFL. The Browns have pressured opposing QBs on 30.2% of passing plays this season — T-2nd-best in NFL.
The Dolphins have run successful plays on just 39.1% of pass attempts against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Browns have pressured opposing QBs on 50% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL.
Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats
The Dolphins have faced a blitz just 8% of the time this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
The Dolphins had 19 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — most in NFL.
The Dolphins have averaged -0.40 epa per play against a stacked front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.08.
The Dolphins scored 8 TDs from their own territory last season — most in NFL.
Cleveland Browns Offense: Important Stats
The Browns have averaged -0.31 epa per play on motion plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.00.
The Browns ran successful plays on 0% of pass attempts in the 1st half in Week 16 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.
The Browns have a third down conversion rate of 29% on motion plays since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Browns ran successful plays on 36% of pass attempts on motion plays last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats
The Dolphins defense has not allowed a third down conversion with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 34%.
The Dolphins defense have allowed -0.24 epa per play on first drive of the game this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.
The Dolphins defense have allowed -0.39 epa per play on contested throws this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.07.
The Dolphins defense have allowed -0.47 epa per play with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.
Cleveland Browns Defense: Important Stats
The Browns defense allowed a passer rating of just 62.5 first read passes (281 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 95.1.
The Browns defense allowed successful plays on 11% of plays on contested throws last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 33%.
The Browns defense has allowed successful plays on 39% of pass attempts from their own territory since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Browns defense has allowed successful plays on 37% of plays with a base front since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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